NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP
EAGLEBANK BOWL
Inaugural bowl. This will be the 1st time that an NCAA bowl is played in D.C and also the 1st time in 63 yrs
that WF has ply’d a tm 2x in the same ssn. Navy upset then #16 WF 24-17 (+16) in Winston-Salem handing
WF their 1st loss of the yr. Navy FB Kettani rushed for a ssn-high 175 yd as Navy took adv of the fact that
WF was off a huge win over Fla St. This is a schl rec’d 6th consec bowl trip for Navy (2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS). HC
Niumatalolo took over just prior to LY’s Poinsettia Bowl and the Mids came up just short in a 35-32 loss to Utah
(+8). WF holds a 6-3 lead in the all-time series with Navy. The Deacons had won 4 str vs the Midshipmen until
Navy’s win TY. These 2 have only faced 1 common opp and WF beat Duke 33-30 in OT while Navy lost 41-31.
WF has 3 consec winning seasons for the 1st time S/’50-’52 and this is the 1st time in history they’ve gone to
3 consec bowls. WF is 5-3 all-time SU & 4-2 ATS in bowls. This is Grobe’s 8th yr at WF and 4th bowl (2-1 SU
& ATS). WF faced 9 bowl caliber tms going 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS and was outscored 18-16 & outgained 297-290.
Navy faced 7 bowl opps TY with a 4-3 SU/ATS record but was outscored 26-23 and outgained 377-307. WF’s
16 Sr’s will leave as the winningest class (31-19). WF has 9 Sr sts and 18 upperclassmen while Navy has 11
Sr sts and 16 upperclassmen. Both tms play on FieldTurf and WF went 1-3 SU & ATS on grass while Navy was
1-1 SU/ATS. Navy clinched this bowl Nov 1st giving them much more time to sell tickets and brought 20,000+
fans to each of their bowls the last few yrs, so Navy will have a definite crowd edge.
Navy’s #54 off struggled TY due to QB inj’s. Senior Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada was the starter in ‘07,
but suffered a hamstring inj in the pressn which bothered him all yr and he only saw action in 5 gms. Bkup
Sr QB Bryant took over and started 6, but the off struggled behind him as it is scaled back when he is in the
lineup and only Kaipo runs the full triple-option. Bryant suffered a shldr inj vs SMU which forced 3rd string
soph QB Dobbs off the bench and he led the tm with 224 rush yds & 4 TD in his first extensive action. Dobbs
came off the bench vs Temple to lead the tm to a 33-27 OT win (down 20 pts in 4Q), then led the tm to 14 pts
in the 4Q vs ND in a near-comeback earning him the start at NIll (16-0 win). Kaipo started the tm’s 34-0 win
over Army and should get the start here as long as he’s healthy. SB Shun White, MVP of the Army gm (147
yds), rushed for a schl rec’d 348 yds in the opener vs Towson and teamed with FB Kettani to lead Navy to
an NCAA leading 298 rush ypg (5.4). Navy’s OL avg 6’3” 277 with 2 Sr sts. The D ranks #80 but made large
strides TY despite facing one of the toughest slates of opps in recent history. Navy all’d 50 less ypg rushing
and 47 ypg less passing than LY but still is #99 in our pass D rankings all’g 66% comp’s. Navy is #79 in our
ST rankings led by super K Harmon and got their win over AF on 2 blk’d punts ret’d for TD’s.
Under Grobe, WF is 26-12 SU over the L3Y, the most successful 3 year stretch in WF history incl winning
the ACC Title in ‘06 foll’d by a trip to the Orange Bowl. QB Riley Skinner is now 25-11 as a st’r and ranks 4th
in the ACC in ttl off & pass eff. With his 8 rec’s in the ssn finale vs Vandy, WR DJ Boldin’s 77 rec’s gives him 1
of the top 10 pass-catching seasons in ACC history. RB Adams rushed for 111 yds vs Miami but missed the
next 2 (ankle) & Pendergrass took over the starting job. WF OL avg 6’4” 290 but paved the way for just 2.9 ypc
rush while all’g 30 sks. Starting RG McMillian suffered a leg inj vs BC (exp to miss). While WF only has our
#87 off, they do have our #14 D. WF leads the NCAA with 35 TO’s. Wake’s rush D is all’g 3.4 ypc. The DL avg
6’3” 272 and has 15.5 of the 22 sks. HM ACC NT Boo Robinson leads this group. Butkus winner Aaron Curry
is #2 among active ACC players in career tkls w/328. WF has our #30 pass D and is all’g 184 ypg (53%) and
has 17 int. AA & 1st Tm ACC CB Alphonso Smith now has 20 career pickoffs and shares the top spot on the
ACC’s all-time list with former AA Dre’ Bly. Bkups S Alex Frye and DT Michael Carter were susp vs NCSt, BC
and Vandy and will not play in the bowl. WF has our #17 sp tms. K Sam Swank, who missed half the yr with
a quad inj, kicked his 71st career FG vs Vandy and moved into 2nd place in the ACC. The Deacons are avg
19.9 on KR and 5.8 on PR and are all’g an amazing 0.7 ypr on PR (#1 NCAA) and 20.7 on KR.
While Navy finished the season with B2B shutouts it was vs the #110 offense of Army and #84 of NIll.
While WF’s offense won’t scare off many, they are able to provide a much more balanced attack exposing
Navy’s defensive weakness (our #99 pass D). It’s tough to go against a service academy in a bowl as their
routine and discipline keep them focused but with only 3 wks between this game, Wake’s focus will be intact.
We’ll side with a Demon Deacons squad that gets revenge from losing as a 16 pt fav as they lost the TO battle
by a 6-2 margin. It also helps to have prepped for this same option offense for the 3rd time in 14 months.
FORECAST: WAKE FOREST BY 7
RATING: 1* WAKE FOREST
NEW MEXICO BOWL
These two used to play each other as WAC foes & Colo St holds a slight 6-4 SU & ATS edge. FSU
has won 3 of the L/5, but CSU has won the L/2 incl the last meeting in ‘06. FSU is playing in its 9th bowl
gm in the L/10Y & the Bulldogs are 10-7 SU & 6-6 ATS in bowls, while this is the Rams’ 1st bowl game
S/’05. FSU HC Hill is in his 12th ssn & 5-3 ATS (4-4 SU) all-time in bowls. However, the Bulldogs are
just 11-25 ATS the L/3Y. Hill interviewed for the Wash job but just days afterward removed his name from
consideration & stated he was staying in Fresno. CSU’s new HC Fairchild was an NFL OC prior to arriving
to take over for the legendary Sonny Lubick. The ex-Ram QB spent time on the CSU staff under Lubick
as the QB coach and OC. FSU faced 7 bowl elig tms & went 2-5 SU/ATS and was outscored 27-23 &
outgained 387-364, while CSU faced 6 bowl elig tms going 1-5 SU (3-3 ATS) being outscored 35-20 &
outgained 448-338. FSU, the preseason fav in the WAC, enjoyed its usual wealth of non-conf success
vs BCS tms with wins over UCLA & Rutgers and a near upset of then #10 Wisky. But once again, the
elusive outright WAC Title avoided the Bulldogs as they stumbled in their conf opener en route to a .500
finish in the WAC (4-4 SU, just 1-7 ATS) & ended the season losing 3 of the L/5. CSU went 4-4 SU & 5-3
ATS in conf play & 2-4 SU (1-5 ATS) outside of Ft Collins. The Rams are 12-18 ATS S/’04 as a dog and
are 0-4 SU & ATS as an AD TY. They do have the adv of having played in this stadium before (did not
play here TY). These two had no common opp’s TY. CSU last played 11/22 while Fresno played 11/28.
CSU has 17 upperclassmen incl 9 Sr’s while FSU has 11 upperclassmen with 6 Sr’s.
FSU’s OL avg 6’3”, 289 with two Sr starters. The unit all’d just 17 sks & is anchored by 1st Tm WAC OT
Lepori. The Bulldogs’ balanced off avg 207 ypg pass (5th in WAC) & 177 ypg rush (3rd in the WAC) & avg
29.2 ppg (3rd in WAC). QB Brandstater quietly put together another solid ssn finishing 4th in the WAC with
207 ypg passing. WR Ajirotutu developed into FSU’s go-to receiver & gave them a legitimate vertical threat
while TE Pascoe provided another steady option. Fresno has a trio of RB’s with over 500 yds each. Mathews
was the feature RB before being slowed by an inj (CS) but Harding & Miller are both equally capable runners.
FSU’s DL avg 6’3” 269 with 1 Sr starter & has recorded 12 of the tm’s 17 sks. But the Bulldogs’ rush
D is #104 in the NCAA yielding 197 ypg & has all’d 7 of 12 tms TY to rush for 200+. However, in 2 of the
L/3 gms, FSU held foes to negative rush yds. Fresno’s #69 rated pass D has been steady but for the 2nd
consec yr FSU finished last in the NCAA with only 4 int as a tm. Fresno is #1 in the NCAA in blk’d kicks
S/’02 with 44 & blk’d 2 vs Boise in its last outing. The ST unit is highlighted by KR Jefferson who is #5 in
the NCAA & is the active career leader (avg 32.3 ypr). After missing 3 of 4 FG’s in a 3 pt loss to Wisky in
wk 2, K Goessling has really improved his accuracy going 13-17 the L/10 gms, incl a 58 yd GW over USU.
FSU avg 23.8 on KR & 14.5 on PR while all’g 24 on KR & 14.9 on PR (#118 NCAA).
It was an up & down ssn for CSU incl barely squeaking by a IAA foe, catching TCU in a clear lookahead
(only lost by 6), trailing bottom-dweller SDSt at the half before going TD-for-TD vs the 2x defending MWC
Champ BYU. Needing a win to become bowl elig, they traveled to WY for the Border War & won 31-20
despite being outgained 429-422. CSU’s #67 off is led by 1st yr starter, Sr QB Farris. Fairchild has remarked
several times that he’d love to have him for another yr. Farris’ fav target is Greer, who after not catching a
pass in his 1st 2 yrs, broke the 1,000 yd mark. Sr RB Johnson has 5x the yds of the #2 rusher. The OL avg
6’5” 299 with 1 Sr starter & has started 72% of the gms together. They pave the way for 130 ypg rush (3.7)
but have all’d 25 sks (6.3%). The D ranks #103 in our standings. The DL avg 6’5” 269 with 3 Sr’s & has
started 75% of the gms together. They are all’g 185 rush ypg (5.2) & the tm has tallied just 10 sks (2.7%),
with only 4 of those by DL. The Rams rank #102 in our pass eff D all’g 223 ypg (64%) with a 22-9 ratio.
CSU avg 21.7 ypr on KR & just 6.1 on PR while all’g 25.7 ypr on KR & 13.0 on PR to rank #104 in ST’s.
Fresno’s seasons are becoming predictable as they set the bar high and fall into a midseason swoon.
Last season HC Hill rallied his troops to win 3 of the L/4 gms and they controlled GT in the bowl for an easy
4H winner for us. This yr they dropped 9 str ATS before splitting the last 2 but there’s plenty of value. Fresno
would have been a DD fav earlier this season and HC Hill is reenergized towards this Bulldogs program following
his snub from UW. FSU is excited to be here and expect the “Red Wave” to give them the fan edge.
FORECAST: FRESNO ST BY 10
RATING: 3* FRESNO ST
ST PETERSBURG BOWL
Inaugural magicJack St Petersburg Bowl. These 2 have met 4x’s (2-2), the last meeting was a 31-15 UM win
in ‘04. Memphis is 3-1 ATS vs the Bulls. This will be the Bulls 4th consec bowl incl LY’s 56-21 loss to Oreg in the
Sun Bowl. USF is off a disappointing ssn after being a pre-ssn BE fav and darkhorse Nat’l Title contender. The
Bulls once again rose into the Top 10 only to lose 4 out of 5 and fall into this bowl. UM is making its 5th bowl
appearance the L/6Y, incl a 44-27 loss (+3) to FAU in LY’s New Orleans Bowl. HC West is 2-2 SU/ATS in bowl
gms at Mem. UM & USF had 2 common opp’s in UCF & L’Ville. The Tigers went 0-2 SU/ATS and were outscored
32-25, despite outgaining them 393-247. The Bulls needed OT to defeat UCF & had a disappointing loss to UL.
USF outscored those opp’s 26-24 & outgained them 428-275. The Bulls have played 7 bowl caliber tms (3-4 SU/
ATS) being outscored 24-21 but outgaining them 369-347. The Tigers played 4 bowl tms going 1-3 SU/ATS being
outscored 36-26 despite outgaining them 419-416. The Bulls are just 3-8 SU & 2-9 ATS on turf while UM plays
its home gms on turf. USF has 12 Sr starters among 19 upperclassmen and UM has 11 Sr starters among their
19 upperclassmen. The Bulls were 3-3 SU but 2-4 ATS on the road, while UM was 2-3 SU & 2-2-1 ATS in AG’s.
The crowd edge goes to USF which is only 23 miles from the field, while UM struggled avg just 25,000 at home
which incl 40,000 for UL game. Their home finale drew 15,000 and that was for bowl elig. USF has been a fav in
21 gms the L/2Y and is 9-12 ATS with 8 SU losses, while UM is 8-5 ATS as a dog the L/2Y, with 5 outrights.
UM was forced to use 5 QB’s due to inj TY, incl a WR who didn’t even play QB in HS. UM lost both starting
QB Hall (out 2+ wks, broken thumb) & bkup Hudgens (ssn, knee) within a couple of plays in their loss
at E Car (30-10, +8). Jr Brett Toney was forced into action having only thrown 1 career pass. True Fr Bass
(PS#135) was set to split time with Toney, but he was lost for the ssn the next wk (knee). Toney started 2
gms (2-0 SU/ATS) & was backed up by WR Jones. Despite the inj, UM has our #44 off which managed 28
ppg and 432 ypg. The OL avg 6’5” 296 and opened holes for 206 ypg (4.8) rushing and all’d just 16 sks.
RB Steele (CUSA Newcomer of the Yr) was #3 in CUSA in rush yds after coming in from JC. QB Hall ret’d
to start the L/2 & avg’d 146 ypg (53%) with a 1-1 ratio. WR Singleton provides a big target (6’6”) & UM has
multiple receivers who can stretch the field. The Tigers have our #82 D all’g 26 ppg & 342 ypg, but only
managed 20 sks. The DL avg 6’3” 280 but all’d 4.7 ypc. They are led by DT McDonald, who had a team high
7 sks despite missing 3 gms (inj). They have our #66 pass eff D all’g 196 ypg (53%) with a 16-7 ratio. The
Tigers have our #80 ST’s & made 14-19 FG’s (11-13 inside 40) & were #5 in CUSA in net punting (36.4).
They had 3 kicks blk’d (2 FG, 1 P) & also all’d a 95 yd KR TD.
USF has our #40 off avg 397 ypg & 27 ppg. The Bulls off, on paper, looked to be tops in the BE with 10
sts returning and the backfield & WR’s were loaded with talent. Inj’s depleted the RB unit and Grothe once
again was left to carry the off. He led the tm for the 2nd yr in rushing and avg 223 ypg pass. Bama transfers
Ford & Taylor never made the impact expected, as both had inj’s that made the off one-dimensional. USF
has a slew of speed at WR and Hester emerged as the go-to-guy with Johnson #2 and Love #3. The offense
is in the worst 5 gm stretch in school history avg 14 ppg in that span. The OL features 4 Sr’s that has paved
the way for 160 ypg (4.1), all’g 26 sks. The USF def has our #21 ranking all’g 21 ppg and 292 ypg, despite
losing some NFL’rs & suffering key inj’s losing DE Selvie for 2 gms & MLB Mompremier (neck) for the year
after 4 gms. Unfortunately, his promising career is over. The def kept USF in most of their gms while the
offense struggled. The DL is all’g just 97.7 ypg rush (#9 NCAA) and has 18 of their 22 sks. They are lead by
AA DE Selvie whose numbers are down from LY, due to facing double and triple teams 60+% of the time. The
LB corps is led by 1st Tm BE McKenzie who has 355 tkls the L/3Y. The Bulls have our #48 pass D ranking
allowing 194 ypg (53%) and a 15-10 ratio. The unit truly missed LY’s CB’s ******* & Williams, despite Leavitt’s
promise that they wouldn’t miss a step. The ST’s have our #59 ranking led by KR Bogan’s 25.9 ypr. The K gm
struggled early before they made the move to Fr Bonani who kicked the GW vs Kansas.
USF underachieved for a 2nd straight year and was hoping for much better results. They dropped 4 of
their L/5 gms SU and their only win was a 1 pt cover at home vs Conn. Memphis played much better than
their 6-6 record and due to QB inj’s were down to a 4th stringer at times. The layoff will help their offense
regain its early season form, while USF’s layoff will remind them of disappointing year and their 35 pt loss
in the bowl last year. Non-NY’s Day dogs of 12+ are now 9-2 82% since ‘96. USF has a more talented
defense but this Memphis team has the players and the ability to keep this game close.
FORECAST: MEMPHIS (+) THE PTS USF BY 3
RATING: 2* MEMPHIS
LAS VEGAS BOWL
These two are former WAC rivals (‘60-’70’s) & this is the 22nd meeting between the two (1st in a bowl
gm). This is BYU’s 4th consec trip here where they’ve gone 2-1 SU/ATS, which is also Mendenhall’s bowl
rec’d. LY BYU blk’d a 28 yd chip shot FG (by a fingertip) and walked away with a 17-16 win over UCLA.
Cougar fans travel very well to Vegas and were part of the largest gathering to witness a tm sporting event
in NV history in ‘06 when they dismantled Oregon 38-8 (-3’). UA is in its 1st bowl in 10 yrs & regained
some much needed momentum after their big victory in the finale vs ASU. These two faced 3 common
foes TY (Wash, UCLA, NM) and BYU went 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS, only tm that lost to UW ATS all yr) with solid
point (36-10) & ydg (459-287) edges while UA went 2-1 SU/ATS blowing an expected win at NM despite
being a 10’ pt fav (36-20 avg score, outgained tms 390-258). Both played 4 bowl tms with BYU going 2-2
SU (1-3 ATS) outgaining them 437-412 while the Wildcats went just 1-3 SU (2-2 ATS) being outgained
421-354. The Cougs have 9 Sr starters & 19 upperclassmen while UA has 8 Sr’s & 16 upperclassmen.
Both play on grass but BYU has a bit of an adv on the turf at Sam Boyd Stadium (home of UNLV) as they
have played here 5x’s in the L/3Y. Both have struggled on the road TY going a comb 2-9 ATS.
QB Tuitama holds virtually every UA passing rec’d as they switched over to the TT spread off LY
when former Red Raider OC Dykes accepted the same pos at UA. Fighting off inj’s during his first 2
yrs, Tuitama has failed to miss a start in the L/2Y flourishing as the leader of the off. RB Grigsby began
the yr as the only legitimate threat out of the backfield, however, his tendency to fmbl all’d true frosh
Antolin to emerge as more than just a KR as he posted a huge game in a key victory vs Cal. The WR/
TE combo of Thomas & Gronkowski is arguably the most dangerous in the P10 despite the fact that
Gronkowski missed the beginning of the yr due to an illness. The Wildcats OL avg 6’5” 313 & is led
by outstanding 1st Tm P10 LT Britton who has helped pave the way for 164 ypg (4.1) while they have
all’d 27 sks (7.2%). Overall UA ranks as our #16 off. The DL avg 6’3” 270 all’g 132 ypg (4.2) on the ssn
while the D collected 22 sks (6.1%). The LB corps is led by Ronnie Palmer who is the heart & soul of
the UA D but they will be w/o #3 tklr Lewis who is susp here. The Wildcats lost both of their CB’s LY to
the NFL but have seen LY’s bkups step up strongly led by Devin Ross. Overall the secondary has our
#14 pass eff def ranking all’g 170 ypg (55%) with an 11-15 ratio while the D ranks #28. The Cats have
a solid ST unit ranking (#10 overall) led by the explosive ret’s of 1st Tm P10 PR Thomas.
All the early talk was about BYU busting the BCS until they were thrashed by TCU. They were still
in the running for a MWC Title until a 48-24 loss to Utah. BYU is led by Hall, whose 69.6 comp % ranks
#1 among BYU’s legendary QB’s. He holds the single-ssn MWC rec’d for TD passes & has thrown one
in 22 of his 25 career gms. His fav target is WR Collie, who has gone over the 100 rec yd mark in 10
str gms, doubling the old MWC rec’d. He is BYU’s all-time leading rec and ranks #1 in the NCAA in rec
ypg. Hall’s other fav target is his bro-in-law, Pitta. The Mackey Semi-Finalist has made huge grabs, many
coming in the 2H after tm’s adjusted to Collie. He was limited in the last gm (MCL) but should be 100%
here. The OL avg 6’6” 326 with 4 Sr’s and placed 2 on the 1st Tm MWC (1 on 2nd). They have paved
the way for 136 ypg rush (4.2) while all’g 18 sks (4.0%) TY. BYU has our #15 offense. The D comes
in at #71. They have forced 27 TO’s TY, conv 18 into pts. The DL is led by MWC sack record-holder
Jorgensen, who has 21.5 in his career but many tms focused on him TY and he has just 5. The DL has
recorded 11.5 (55%) of the tm’s 21 sks. The young secondary has been burned giving up some big
plays TY but CB Johnson could return here (tm’s #4 tklr) after missing the L/3. BYU ranks #91 in our
pass eff D all’g 207 ypg (60%) with a 15-9 ratio. The ST’s unit is #19 in our rankings. BYU avg just 3.8
ypr on PR (gives up 7.7) but 25.2 on KR (22.0 all’d). They have not had a KR TD in 130 consec gms.
BYU has circled Pac-10 gms winning 5 of 6, including beating Washington and UCLA this year. They are,
however, disappointed to be here as their entire season hinged around a BCS run. Arizona snapped a 10
year non-bowl streak and is thrilled to make this Las Vegas Bowl appearance. BYU finished the season avg
38 ppg the L/5 while Arizona held 3 of their L/5 opp’s to 19 pts or less. The teams played similar strengths
of schedule but keep in mind MWC teams were 6-1 SU vs Pac-10 TY giving a slight edge to BYU.
FORECAST: BYU BY 1
RATING: 2* BYU
NEW ORLEANS BOWL
This is Troy’s first outright SBC Title, 2nd trip to New Orleans Bowl and 3rd bowl bid in 5 yrs. Larry
Blakeney has been Troy’s HC for 18 yrs taking them to the ‘04 Silicon Valley Classic (1st school bowl)
losing 34-21(-3) to N Illinois as they were outgained 359-292. In ‘06, Troy captured their 1st SBC Title
(shared w/MT) and won their 1st bowl gm in schl history, a decisive 41-17 victory over Rice here. Troy
played 6 bowl elig tms TY, incl 3 BCS foes, and went 3-3 SU (5-1 ATS). They outscored their opp’s 30-25
while outgaining them 378-368. Troy was outgaining Ohio St at half in their 28-10 loss, got blown out
by Okla St 55-24 (outgained only 255-231 at half) and led LSU 31-3 in 3Q before losing 40-31. SMiss
began the ssn 2-6 under new HC Fedora (OC at OKSt LY) appearing as though they would miss a bowl
for the 1st time S/’01. They regrouped and finished the ssn on a 4 gm SU/ATS win streak to get here and
are now looking to secure their 15th winning ssn in a row (#4 in NCAA). This is the 1st bowl as a HC for
Fedora. LY, the Eagles were unable to send former HC Bower out with a victory, as they lost 31-21 (+11)
to Cincy in the Papajohns.com Bowl. SM played 6 bowl elig tms and went 3-3 SU/ATS, outscoring their
opps 29-26 and outgaining them 439-425. Both tms won & covered vs ULL and Ark St. Troy outscored
them 42-6 and outgained them 399-294, while SM outscored them 39-23 and outgained them 491-421.
Both tms play on turf with Troy going 5-4 ATS and SM finishing 5-5 ATS. Troy has 10 Sr’s among their
19 upperclassmen starters while SM has 5 Sr’s among their 12 upperclassmen starters. Troy went 5-2
ATS away from home, incl 3-1 as a fav. SM went 4-2 ATS on the road, incl 2-1 as a dog.
Troy got here by beating Ark St 35-9 in their last gm of the ssn. This is their 3rd yr in the spread off and
they have our #50 off. They are led by QB Brown, as starting QB Hampton went down with an inj vs FAU.
WR Jernigan leads the WR’s while 3 others have 20+ catches. The RB’s are led by Harris who had four 100
yd gms (3 in L/5). He was also #5 in rec yds. The OL avg 6’2” 299 with 2 Sr’s and only all’d 9 sks (1.9%)
while opening holes for 175 ypg (5.1) on the yr. The DL, which had 30.5 of the tm’s 38 sks, lost DE Mainor
after gm 3 (knee). They are allowing 139 ypg (3.5). The LB corps may be the best in the SBC (3 of top 4
tklrs) as they have 10 of the 21 int. The secondary has 9 int led by FS Martin. Troy has our #56 D all’g 21
ppg and 319 ypg. They have the #22 pass eff D all’g 180 ypg (55%) with a 16-21 ratio. Troy has our #25
ST unit. K Glusman has hit 7-11 from 40+ with a long of 48 and Troy ranks #40 in the NCAA in net punting
(36.3), which is #1 in SBC. Troy avg 21.3 on KR but gives up 18.0. On PR, they avg 9.6 and give up 2.5.
Fedora’s spread offense (our #35) produced a schl rec’d 5,214 yds while avg 31 ppg displaying
outstanding balance avg 196 yds on the ground and 238 through the air. RFr QB Davis became the
1st Eagles’ Fr to start an opener S/’91 setting a schl rec’d for ttl off (3323). He also set schl Fr records
for pass yds and TD passes, surpassing Brett Favre’s mark of 15 TD in ’87. His fav target is True Frosh
Brown as they hooked for a schl rec’d 97 yd TD pass vs EC. Brown led all Fr with 96.1 ypg and his
height (6’6”) causes constant matchup problems for opposing DB’s. TE Nelson provides a big target
that can threaten the middle of the field. RB Fletcher led CUSA in rushing avg 112 ypg (6.0), behind
an OL that avg’s 6’4” 293. The D has been the key to the Eagles’ turnaround all’g just 8.8 ppg the L/4
after yielding 31 ppg the first 8. SM has our #73 D with LY’s CUSA Def POY LB McGrath leading the
tm in tkls by a large margin (53). The DL avg’s 6’3” 267 and is all’g 4.4 ypc struggling to get pressure
on the QB, but has 13 of the tms 16 sks. SM is #52 in our pass eff D rankings all’g 224 ypg (58%) with
a 24-17 ratio. They have our #93 ST’s and have struggled in the kicking game hitting just 10-19 FG’s
(2-6 over 40) and were last in CUSA in net punting (31.8).
HC Fedora has done an exceptional job changing the mentality of Southern Miss to a high-energy
team. They had a midseason stretch in which they lost 5 straight SU/ATS but rebounded to win and
cover the L/4 outscoring their foes by an avg of 34-9. Troy took care of business by taking the SBC
Title and reaching the 8 win mark for a third straight season. This year’s performance was impressive
as they played toe-to-toe at Ohio St and only trailed 14-10 at half while outplaying LSU at Death Valley
and leading 31-3 in the 2H. We’ll side with this Troy team that has the DL to pressure the SM QB and
the secondary to slow him down.
FORECAST: TROY BY 6 RATING:
1* TROY
POINSETTIA BOWL
This is TCU’s 10th bowl in 11 years & they are 4-3 SU and 4-2-1 ATS (4-0-1 L/5) under HC Patterson
while this is BSU’s 9th bid in 10 yrs (5-3 SU/ATS) and they are 1-1 SU/ATS under Petersen. #19 TCU’s
last bowl loss was 34-31 (+11) to #18 Boise in the inaugural Ft Worth Bowl (‘03), the schools’ only
previous matchup. It is the only Dec bowl that matches 2 DD win teams and the combined rankings
of the 2 teams are the highest among non-BCS bowls (5th overall). TCU led Utah for over 59 mins
before allowing a TD pass which cost them the MWC Title. Ironically, that Utes win cost Boise a
coveted BCS bid but at least the Broncos get a quality opp here. The Frogs have lost to teams with a
combined 24-1 record (Oklahoma & Utah) while BSU won their 6th WAC Title (2nd under Petersen)
in the L/7Y and went undefeated for the 2nd time in 3 years. The Frogs faced 5 bowl-caliber tms
& went 3-2 SU but 2-3 ATS outscoring those opp 22-14 & outgaining them 392-274. BSU faced 8
bowl-elig tms & went 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS outscoring them by 20 ppg & outgaining them by 97 ypg.
TCU has 17 upperclassmen starters including 13 Sr’s while BSU has 13 upperclassmen & 11 Sr’s.
TCU plays on a grass HF while the Broncos are 3-0 ATS the L/2Y on the real stuff. TCU went 9-2
ATS as a fav while BSU went 3-1 SU/ATS as a dog including the bowls L/3Y. Not surprisingly BCS
schools have courted both HC’s but both have remained loyal for now.
TCU has our #31 off and is led by dual threat QB Dalton who made 10 starts (missed 2 gms w/
inj) & accounted for 19 ttl TD’s (11 pass, 8 rush). Dalton’s bkup, Jackson, is the tm’s #3 rusher in a
limited role. Leading WR Young has more than 3x the ttl rec yds and twice the TD’s of any other rec
on the tm & was named 2nd Tm MWC. TCU’s OL avg 6’4” 311 with 3 Sr starters. They pave the way
for 216 ypg rush (4.4) while all’g 18 sks (5.4%). TCU is #2 in our D rankings & has simply dominated
all ssn. The Horned Frogs have all’d 7+ pts in just 5 gms & surrendered just 11 ppg (#2 NCAA). The
DL avg 6’2” 269 with 3 Sr’s & the cohesive unit has started every game. They are #1 in the NCAA
all’g just 49 ypg rush (1.7) which is 25 ypg better than any other team in the nation! The D is led
by AA & MWC D POY (1st D POY at TCU S/’02) Jerry Hughes who leads the nation in sks with 14.
TCU has the #4 pass eff D all’g just 166 ypg (49%) with an 8-14 ratio. The ST’s unit (#18) avg 27.0
ypr on KR & 11.9 ypr on PR. Ret specialist Kerley is the 4th consec 1st Tm MWC RS for TCU. The
Horned Frogs give up an avg of 19.0 on KR & 7.7 on PR & they have also all’d 3 blk’d K’s TY.
Kellen Moore became the first frosh to start at QB in BSU history & turned in a fantastic year en
route to earning ‘08 WAC Frosh of the Year honors. Moore led the WAC in pass eff, comp % & TD
passes & was 2nd in pass ypg & ttl off. BSU’s OL avg 6’3” 285 with 2 Sr’s & is anchored by 1st Tm
WAC LT Woodruff who was the only OL to start every game TY. While RB Johnson recorded his
fewest total rushing yds since his frosh ssn (‘05), he was still an integral part of the Broncos’ offense
as he led BSU in rushing & TD’s & is the nation’s active leader in career rush TD’s with 57. WR
Childs earned 1st Tm WAC honors & is #4 in the WAC in rec per game & rec ypg, while WR Pettis
nabbed 2nd Tm WAC honors. BSU has our #20 off & our #14 D with 3 players (DE Winterswyk, S
Powers & CB Wilson) named 1st Tm WAC. BSU’s DL avg 6’3” 260 with 3 Sr’s & is all’g just 105 ypg
rush (3.0) while posting 22 of the team’s 34 sks. Boise all’d just 12.3 ppg (#3 NCAA) & held 8 foes to
10 or less pts (6 to 7 or less). BSU just missed breaking the WAC record for fewest pts all’d in conf
play (89) with 94 with the D only all’g 67 of those pts. BSU has our #3 ST unit. K/P Brotzman has
range beyond 50 yds & has made all 115 of his PAT’s (128 is WAC record). He is also a rugby-style
P. Wilson (2nd Tm WAC on ST) is a huge threat on PR’s with his NCAA-leading 3 PR TD’s.
TCU has been the poster child for defensive teams and they’ve held every opp to 14 pts or less
except for Oklahoma, which they held to a season-low 35. Boise, meanwhile, has solid D numbers
but their WAC sk’d is much lighter. Boise rates as a slightly better offensive tm having avg’d 49 ppg
the L/5 but a closer look shows that they’ve only played 1 D rated in the NCAA’s top half. Expect the
Horned Frogs to shut down another bowl foe as they’ve allowed a total of 20 pts the L/2 bowl gms.
FORECAST: TCU BY 13
RATING: 3* TCU
HAWAII BOWL
This is the 3rd meeting with ND winning both SU (0-2 ATS) incl a 1 pt win over UH as a 28 pt AD in the
‘97 finale. Bowl organizers were thrilled to invite the Irish after they slid down the Big East’s bowl pecking
order while HC Weis is happy to give his young tm extra practice while doing a little recruiting on the Islands.
ND has played in a bowl in Hawaii before, a 27-20 loss to SMU in the Aloha Bowl in ‘84. The Irish have
lost an NCAA record 9 straight bowls (last win in ‘93 Cotton) & are 1-8 ATS. Hawaii is making its 9th bowl
appearance overall & is playing in its 6th bowl gm in the L/7Y. The Warriors are 5-3 SU & 4-4 ATS all-time
in bowls. This will mark the 7th time UH will play a bowl at home where it is 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS. The Warriors
played 8 bowl-elig tms TY going 3-5 SU & 5-3 ATS (5-0 ATS L/5) & were outscored by 11 ppg & outgained
by 78 ypg. The Irish went 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS vs bowl tms getting outscored 27-16 & outgained 330-306 with
the TO margin at -13. This is HC McMackin’s 1st bowl at UH while Weis is 0-2 SU/ATS getting outscored
75-34 in 2 BCS gms vs Top 5 tms (Ohio St & LSU). The Irish are 2-4 SU & 3-3 ATS on the road TY with the
SU wins vs 0-12 Wash & vs Navy (neutral field) while UH was 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS here in Aloha Stadium.
ND went 2-3 ATS as a dog & 2-1 ATS on turf while UH plays its HG’s on turf. UH has 15 Sr starters & 21
upperclassmen starters while ND has 8 Sr’s among 13 upperclassmen starters.
After a ssn of historical lows in ‘07 the Irish were expected to be one of the nation’s most improved tms
in ‘08. ND started out with great promise at 4-1 but TO’s & youthful inexperience derailed the season. QB
Clausen seemed to lose confidence as the year wore on as at midseason his numbers were comparable
to Brady Quinn’s 2006 stats. The L/4, however, he had just a 2-8 ratio as a stagnant running gm (#98
NCAA) provided little relief. An injury to record setting frosh WR Floyd also allowed teams to double team
the Irish’s best big play threat Tate. ND was down to 2 true Fr TE’s with Rudolph being forced to take
nearly every snap. The OL was vastly improved in pass blocking as they cut their sacks allowed from an
NCAA worst 58 to a more reasonable 20 (4.8%) and the off finished #56 in our rankings. The defense is
#34 led by the S duo of McCarthy & Bruton who finished as the team’s #1 & #2 tacklers. The Irish play
a base 3-4 with NT Williams clogging the middle. The staff created a S/LB hybrid role to get the athletic
Harrison Smith onto the field & he led the Irish with 8.5 tfl. ND is #28 in our pass eff D rankings & #51 in
ST’s with K being a problem for most of the ssn as Walker started the yr 1-7.
UH struggled right out of the gate TY losing 3 of its first 4 gms with many question marks. The Warriors
went through a QB shuffle that extended to the end of Oct before finally settling on Alexander. UH stood
3-4 on the yr when Alexander came in off the bench to start the 2H vs Nev & McMackin retained him as
the starter for the rest of the year to finally give the offense some much-needed stability & chemistry. UH’s
OL avg 6’2” 299 with 3 Sr’s & is led by 1st Tm WAC C Estes. McMackin stated UH would make a concerted
effort to run the ball more TY, & they did, but the increase in production was marginal. UH’s leading rusher
Libre is avg just 36 ypg. Converted RB-turned-WR Pilares was slated to play in the slot TY but he’s been
shuffled between WR & RB but does give UH a multi-threat out of the backfield. The Warriors have a pair
of WR’s in Washington (2nd Tm WAC) & Salas who form a formidable rec corps with Bain & Lane. UH’s
biggest downfall TY has been its inability to protect the ball as the Warriors are #117 in the NCAA in TO’s
lost with 35 (21 int, 14 fmbl). UH boasts an experienced def as all 11 starters are either Jr’s (2) or Sr’s (9).
The DL avg 6’3” 286 with 3 Sr’s & has recorded 23 of the Warriors’ 34 sks (68%). UH’s D is highlighted by
a pair of 1st Tm WAC LB’s in Elimimian & Leonard who form the WAC’s top LB duo (193 tkls combined).
Elimimian was named the ‘08 WAC co-Def POY and is the WAC’s leading active tackler (425). UH’s #43
pass D is highlighted by 1st Tm WAC DB Mouton and DB’s Monteilh & Thomas have combined for 8 int.
In his first 3 ssn, PK Kelly connected on 71% of his FG att. TY, however, he’s struggled with his accuracy
as he’s missed 6 of his L/8 attempts over the L/5 gms. UH finished a poor #114 in our ST’s rankings.
Notre Dame makes this trip on Christmas Eve after improving from its 3-9 record LY. The 6-6 performance
all’d Charlie Weis to keep his job but no team has more pressure to get a bowl win. The Irish have dropped 9
straight bowls and failed to cover the L/7 and a loss here will give them a losing record. Hawaii went thru a
QB shuffle TY starting 3 diff QB’s before settling on Alexander but the bulk of his stats were against inferior
defenses as 3 of the L/5 games were vs #107 NMSt, #119 Idaho and #111 Washington St. We see value
here with the Irish being an underdog as the difference in talent level will be obvious.
FORECAST: NOTRE DAME BY 10
RATING: 4* NOTRE DAME
MOTOR CITY BOWL
This is FAU’s 2nd bowl in as many yrs as they just started playing IA ball in ‘04 becoming the
fastest start-up program to earn a bowl berth. HC Schnellenberger took over the program in ‘01 when
they didn’t have a football team. He is 5-0 SU & ATS in bowls, including LY’s 44-27 win over Memphis
in the New Orleans Bowl. He also won a Nat’l Title w/Miami in ‘83. FAU played 6 bowl-caliber tms
going 1-5 SU & 1-4-1 ATS being outgained 428-323 & outscored 32-14. CM is appearing in their 3rd
straight Motor City Bowl, but not as the MAC Champ for the 1st time. As the MAC Titles are held at
Ford Field, this will be CM’s 5th gm here in the L/3Y. CM should have a big fan edge as they have a
short 2.5 hr drive & have played before over an avg of 57,000 the L/2Y including over 54,000 the last
time they played a SBC member. In those 4 previous gms, CM is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS. Their only loss
came vs Purdue, 51-48 (+7’) in LY’s bowl, which was HC Jones 1st bowl game. In the ‘06 bowl they
defeated SBC member MT, 31-14 (-8). CM played 5 bowl caliber teams going 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS &
despite a 56-17 loss to UGA, they were only outscored by an avg 34-28 & outgained 437-418. These
2 teams have never met & did not face any common opp’s TY. FAU has 10 seniors among their 17
upperclassman starters compared to CM which has 9 among their 18 upperclassman.
FAU came into the ssn with 18 returning starters but lost 2 prior to the opener (TE Harmon-inj & DT
Mertilus-acad) before losing RT Rizzo after 8 gms (torn ACL). They started off the ssn 1-5 before winning 5
of their L/6 avg 35.6 ppg. They are led by QB Smith (6’5” 212) who was a 2x SBC POW TY (2 of L/3 gms).
Smith struggled in 1st 4 gms due to inj but improved over L/8 avg 256 ypg (57%) with an 18-9 ratio while going
5-3 to become bowl-elig. FAU had 4 players with 25+ catches with 2 of them being TE’s Grant & Housler.
The Owls’ run gm improved from LY’s 3.5 ypc to 4.5. RB Pierre led the team & had four 100+ yds
gms. The OL avg 6’2” 280 with 2 Sr starters. They all’d 12 sks (2.9%) & opened holes for 141 ypg
(4.5). They finished with our #71 off. The D, which had just 12 sks (#112 NCAA) all’d 183 rush ypg
(4.4) to rank #98 in the NCAA. The LB’s are led by Joseph who is #2 tklr in the NCAA & FAU went
from having 19 int LY to 12 TY with CB Small leading with four. The Owls rank #95 in our pass eff
D (219 ypg, 63%, 21-12 ratio) & overall have our #94 ranked D all’g 29 ppg & 402 ypg. FAU is #111
(last in SBC) in net punting (31.7). They avg 19.8 on KR but give up 17.6. On PR, FAU avg 8.3 &
allows 5.9 and they finished a dismal #108 in our rankings.
CM ended the reg ssn with 2 straight conf losses & missed what would have been their 3rd
straight MAC Champ gm after dominating the conf the previous 2 yrs (15-2 in MAC play). CM has
our #33 off & is avg 30 ppg & 427 ypg. The offense is led by QB LeFevour (2nd Tm MAC) who led
the MAC in ttl off (307 ypg) & is CM’s top rusher (#10 MAC). CM’s receiving corps is led by two 1st
Tm MAC WR’s in Brown (#5 MAC rec ypg) and Anderson (#4). The OL avg 6’4” 293 & is led by Sr’s
LT Hartline (1st Tm MAC) & RT Wojt (2nd Tm MAC). They have paved the way for 3.6 ypc but have
all’d 29 sks (6.6%) despite having a mobile QB. CM has our #106 D & is all’g 31 ppg & 424 ypg but
led the MAC in rush D (139 ypg). The DL is led by 1st Tm MAC DE Zombo, who led the MAC in tfl
& was #2 in sks & 3rd Tm MAC DT Murnane. The DL avg 6’3” 256 & accounted for 28 of their conf
leading 31 sks but did allow 4.2 ypc. The LB corps is led by 1st Tm MAC MLB Bellore, who was the
MAC’s leading tklr. Their secondary (#107) was the weak spot allowing 286 ypg (64%) & a poor 23-8
ratio. The Sp Tms are led by 2nd Tm MAC K Aguila & MAC ST’s POY Brown, who led the nation with
a 20.7 PR avg. They did allow 22.0 ypr on KR & 12.3 ypr on PR’s.
CM had a disappointing finish to the year as they were 8-2 when they faced off against Ball St for
the MAC Title. After that loss they also dropped a shoot out to EM. FAU finished their season winning
5 of 6 but needed a 14 pt comeback to beat FIU in OT & become bowl elig. Even on Selection Sunday
they were unsure if they would get a bowl bid. Rusty Smith struggled early with an inj but his offensive
production improved as the Owls avg’d 39 ppg the L/4. Both offenses & defenses are very close so
we’ll take the pts & the Future Hall of Fame Coach who has a Nat’l Champ under his belt.
FORECAST: FLORIDA ATLANTIC BY 1
RATING: 2* FAU
MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
This is just the 2nd meeting between NC & WV. Their only other meeting came in the ‘97 Gator Bowl, a
20-13 UNC victory (-6’). NC is bowl elig for the 1st time S/’04 when they played in the Continental Tire Bowl
(now Meineke Car Care) & WV appeared in the inaugural gm in ‘02 (both lost). The Heels finished the reg
ssn with 8 wins which is the most S/’97 (10). NC is 12-13 SU all-time in bowls & 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS L/6. HC
Davis is 4-0 SU & ATS in bowls. Stewart in his 1st bowl as interim HC defeated OK LY 48-28 (+7). WV is off
a disappointing ssn after posting three consec 11 win ssns & 5 consec Jan 1st bowls. They lost 3 gms by a
combined 10 pts and dropped from the AP poll for the 1st time since ‘05. WV OC Mullen is familiar with NC
having coached at WF for 7 yrs. NC plays all of their HG’s on grass while WV is 7-4 SU & 5-6 ATS L3Y on
grass. NC has 11 Sr’s (T-3rd fewest in NCAA) incl 5 starters among 13 total upperclassmen. WV has 8 Sr
starters among 12 upperclassmen. NC played 9 bowl teams & went 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS, outscoring them 28-20
but was outgained 364-302. WV has played 7 bowl tms outscoring them 19-18 but was outgained 317-303.
These 2 faced 2 common opp’s TY each defeating both Rutgers & Conn, NC by 29 ppg & WV by 15 ppg.
This bowl has avg’d 60,000 fans with only 2 sellouts in 6Y. NC will have the crowd edge but WV fans have
travelled well in the past & will make the trip. WV is 2-3 SU & ATS on the road TY & NC is 3-2 SU & ATS.
WV has our #35 off avg 24 ppg & 353 ypg. After huge bowl win as interim coach Stewart brought in OC
Mullen to “tweak” the prolific WV run off into a balanced attack. WV opened by throwing 5 TD’s vs Villanova
& each week looked like a different offense. The off went from avg 40 ppg & 297 (6.2) ypg rush in ‘07, to avg
24 ppg & 217 (5.5) ypg rush. QB White broke Mizzou QB Brad Smith’s record & became the all-time leader
in rushing by a QB & the 1st player BE to reach 10,000 career yds. Devine stepped into big shoes replacing
NFL’er Slaton & rushed for 102 ypg (6.4). The WR corps was led by playmaker Sanders. The OL has 133 car
sts & features 3 Sr’s that only all’d 14 sks led by All-BE selections Stanchek & Dent who missed L/4 to inj
(CS). While the offense searched for its identity, the D kept WV in games. DC Casteel earned his paycheck
with just 4 starters ret’g & a huge loss in MLB Williams who couldn’t recover from surg to both shoulders.
WV has our #25 def allowing 16 ppg & 326 ypg. The DL allowed 135 rush ypg (3.6) & has 12 of the tm’s 24
sks. The LB’s are led by All-BE LB Ivy & Thomas who combined for 15 tfl. The Mountaineers have our #24
pass D, all’g 191 ypg (56%) with an 8-16 ratio. They are led by All BE CB Lankster (PS#1JC!!) & former WR
turned CB Hogan who took over & started L/9 and they combined for 6 int. WV has our #37 ST’s ranking led
by All-BE P/K McAffee who hit 84% of his FG’s & avg 44.7 on punts. WV ranks #117 in KR def all’g 27.7.
NC has trailed in 6 of their 8 wins TY incl 3x’s rallying back from deficits of at least 10 pts. In 3 of NC’s 4
losses they gave up late scores incl leading VT 17-3 before losing QB TJ Yates (fractured ank) & surrendering
17 pts. NC has dealt with countless injs TY, some to more high-profile players like LB Paschal (spinal
inj), Yates & WR Tate (torn ACL) but the tm’s “resilience, diligence & determination” are what has allowed
them to persevere. QB Yates in just his 2nd gm back from inj (missed 6) threw for 190 yds & 3 TD in the
ssn finale. RB Draughn emerged as the starting TB after moving from S & had 110 yd in the ssn finale. WR
Nicks became the first 1,000 yd rec in UNC history. WR Foster had knee surg but is expected to be ready
here. NC’s OL avg 6’5” 307 allowing 3.6 ypc rush but has all’d 27 sks (9.2%). The unit is led by 2nd Tm ACC
RT Reynolds & HM ACC RG Darity. The Heels have our #64 off & #44 def. The DL avg 6’4” 293 allowing 3.8
ypc rush & the DL has 11 of the 18 sks (61%). DE’s Wilson & true Fr Quinn (PS#18DL), who is 1 yr removed
from a brain tumor, will be counted on to contain QB White. NC has one of the best LB groups in the ACC
but Paschal suffered a career ending spinal inj vs NCSt. Sturdivant is #1 tklr & Carter leads the nation with
5 blk’d K (4 P, 1 FG). NC ranks 8th in the NCAA with 19 int & set a single ssn NC rec with 4 IR TD’s. NC has
int’d at least 1 pass in 9 of 12 gms TY incl multiple int’s in 6. NC is #47 in our pass D rankings allowing 217
ypg pass (60%). The secondary is led by S Goddard who is T-#1 in the NCAA w/7 int (1 IR TD) & CB Burney.
NC has our #31 sp tms. NC avgs 10.9 on PR’s & 21.6 on KR’s. They allowed 9.2 on PR’s & 18.2 on KR’s.
NC was picked to be one of our most improved tms TY & fought through 2 major injs to QB Yates &
WR/sp tmr Tate to get to 8 wins. WV had BCS aspirations after LY’s Fiesta Bowl win & new HC Stewart
experimented the entire season with more of a passing offense. This backfired & WV finished with just 8
wins including dropping gms as a favorite vs EC, Colo, Cincy & Pitt. This is a bowl that could be decided
by the 2 coaches & that advantage clearly goes to the Tar Heels under Butch Davis.
FORECAST: N CAROLINA BY 8
RATING: 1* N CAROLINA
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
This is the 1st meeting between the schools. FSU fans are disappointed to be here as the Gator Bowl
snubbed an FSU program that has aggressively sought to play regular season games in Jacksonville by
selecting 7-5 Clemson over 8-4 FSU even though the Noles defeated the Tigers 41-27. FSU extended its bowl
streak to 27 straight, a mark that leads the nation. This is both teams’ 1st appearance in this bowl although
Wisconsin has played in the other Orlando bowl (Capital One) in ‘06 & ‘07 pulling upsets of SEC teams both
years. This is the 5th year in a row that UW will spend the holidays in Florida and there has been talk of ‘bowl
fatigue’ among their normally rabid fan base. The Noles hold an 8-2-1 record all-time (3-1-1 in bowls) vs current
Big Ten opps. S/’95 UW is 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS vs ACC tms. FSU is 20-10-1 SU and 18-10-1 ATS in bowls
under Bowden while Bielema is 1-1 SU & ATS. UW is 2-1 ATS on grass TY and 3-2 ATS on the road. FSU
played of all its games on grass TY. The Noles went 4-3 ATS as a fav including their 39-21 win over Colorado
in Jacksonville as our Sept 5H GOM Winner. Under Bielema, UW is 2-6 ATS as an AD including bowls. FSU
has 6 senior starter and 16 upperclassmen while the Badgers have 10 seniors among 16 upperclassmen.
At 3-0, #9 UW had BCS dreams leading Mich 19-0 at the half in Ann Arbor. They let the Wolves off the
hook however and the next week Ohio St scored the game-winning TD with 1:08 left. With nothing left in the
tank the Badgers collapsed 48-7 to Penn St in its worst loss S/’89 and HC Bielema decided a QB change was
in order. Evridge was benched and Sherer guided the team to a 4-2 record down the stretch while minimizing
mistakes (4 int in 6 gms). UW’s run game continued to be their strength as Hill and VHT rFr Clay were the
league’s top duo. The offense relies on multiple TE sets and ‘07 Mackey finalist Beckum battled an injury early
on before his season ended with a broken leg after just 6 games.The “other” TE Graham was 1st Tm Big Ten
as the top WR Gilreath had just 30 rec. The OL is massive (6-6 319 avg) and rebounded from midseason
injury problems (LT Carimi and RG Urbik missed 3 gms) for a 4.8 ypc while allowing 26 sks (8.2%). UW’s
senior-laden (6 starters) D blew 3 games (Mich, OSU & Mich St) in the 2H due to untimely mental mistakes.
Wisky has our #32 off and #39 def. The DL is led by DT Newkirk who had a tm leading 8 tfl. The LB’s are the
tm’s top 3 tacklers with Sr’s Casillas and Levy earning HM Big Ten honors. The secondary is spearheaded
by 1st Tm Big Ten CB Langford and is #27 in our pass eff defense rankings. Bielema is the ST’s coach and
acknowledged that some changes need to be made in that area next year as the Badgers finished just #85.
The ‘08 season marks the 32nd consec yr the Seminoles have posted a winning rec’d under Bowden.
FSU started the season with several players susp for the 1st 3 gms but was actually 6-1 heading into Nov
but lost 3 of their L/5. FSU has had some inconsistency with its pro-set offense. QB Ponder struggled vs
Florida in the reg ssn finale and was replaced by Weatherford. HM ACC RB Smith is #2 in the ACC in scoring
and is playing his final game at FSU with the bowl close to his hometown (Pahokee, 140 miles). With
the QB position inconsistent TY, the WR’s did not have the season as expected. The Seminoles’ OL, which
is one of the youngest in the nation in 2008, avg 6’4” 281 and avg 4.9 ypc rush and 24 sks (6.9%). FSU
has our #28 offense and #24 defense. The defense is coming off its worst performance of the yr in the reg
season finale. FSU could not stop QB Tim Tebow (who could?) or the Gators’ receivers and was pushed
around the field. The smallish D-line avg 6’2” 263 and is all’g 3.7 ypc rush and 27.5 of the 36 sacks are by
DL’s. The leader of this unit is 1st Tm ACC & Hendrick Finalist Brown (runner-up ACC Def POY) who ranks
#3 in the NCAA in sks & tfl. The LB’s are the #1, #3 & #4 tklr’s led by Nicholson who is #30 in the NCAA in
tfl. 2nd Tm ACC S Rolle (#2 tklr) is the 1st ACC player in 47 yrs to be a recipient of the Rhodes Scholarship.
There is speculation DC Andrews may be thinking of retirement and has come under fire after bad
performances against Florida, BC and GT. FSU has our #5 sp tms. 1st Tm ACC & Groza winner K Gano
is #1 in the NCAA in FG & #1 in the ACC in scoring (#5 NCAA). KR Garvin is #1 NCAA in KR avg TY and
has 69 career KR’s for 1,650 total yards, just 53 yards shy of topping the all-time record at FSU.
Wisconsin’s season did not go as expected as they totaled 7 wins none of which were vs BCS teams with more
than 7 wins. FSU survived their early season susp’s by playing a pair of IAA teams and the young offense improved
throughout the season and avg’d 32 ppg prior to the Florida loss. FSU is loaded with NFL caliber players and their
main goal will be to shut down the one dimensional Wisky run game. Versus the top 3 quality D’s they faced this year
the Badgers scored just 40 ttl pts against Ohio St, Penn St & Iowa. As you can see by the checklist FSU dominates
almost every category and the speedy D will disrupt inexperienced QB Sherer into making mistakes.
FORECAST: FLORIDA ST BY 17
RATING: 4* FLORIDA ST
EMERALD BOWL
First Emerald Bowl trip for both prog’s & the 4th all-time meeting (First S/’90, UM leads series 2-1). Cal is
bowl-eligible for a schl rec’d 7th consec ssn & will attend a schl rec’d 6th str bowl gm here as HC Tedford is
4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in postseason appearances. UM is 15-8 in bowls S/‘81 and 8-2 recently incl their non-cover
win vs Nevada 21-20 in the MPC Computer Bowl however this marks HC Shannon’s 1st appearance as
HC (2nd yr with Canes). Miami is 13-5 all-time vs tms from the state of CA and is 4-3 all-time playing inside
the Golden State. The last time UM played inside CA was ‘01 when they won the National Championship
in the Rose Bowl. While these schools didn’t play a similar opponent in ‘08, Cal went 3-4 SU (4-3 ATS) vs
bowl teams being outgained by a 356-349 clip while Miami went just 2-5 SU (1-6 ATS) & was outgained
by a 345-290 mark. Cal is just across the bridge from AT&T Park and will obviously have the fan edge. The
Golden Bears have 7 Sr starters among 15 upperclassmen & the Hurricanes have 6 starters in their final
year (23 Sr’s on the UM roster) with 12 upperclassmen total. UM is 10-7 as an AD & 6-3 at a neutral site.
The Bears off ranks #21 despite HC Tedford going back & fourth with his starting QB’s. It appears
that Riley has taken over for the time being with LY’s starter Longshore providing ample bkup capability
here. RB Jahvid Best had a game breaking ssn for the Bears finishing #1 in the conf in rushing after
his 311 rush yd (16.4) performance vs UW while also finishing 1st overall all in all-purp yds. Bkup RB
Vereen, who could start for a handful of P10 schools, filled in valiantly for Best who missed time with
elbow & ankle inj’s. With the departure of arguably the best WR corps that Cal ever had foll LY’s bowl,
this position looked to be the biggest ?? for the upcoming ssn. TE Morrah & 6th yr Sr WR Young carried
the team early on while JC trans & late signee Tucker came on during the 2H of the ssn to contribute.
The OL avg 6’4” 307 & is led by AA C Mack who helped Cal rush for 184 ypg (5.4) while giving up 25
sks (6.6%). Cal DC Gregory took adv of the abundance of talent at the LB position by switching from a
4-3 to 3-4 TY and the Bears’ D finished #8. The DL avg 6’3” 290 & is led by DE Alualu who accompanied
by the rest of the D, all’d 123 ypg rush (3.2) on the year. The LB corps (13.5 of 33 def sks, 41%) is led
by the Sr threesome of Follett, Felder & Williams. Cal’s secondary had an amazing ssn finishing with
our #2 pass eff def ranking all’g just 193 ypg (51%) with a 9-23 ratio (#3 in NCAA in int). Cal posted a
#50 ST’s ranking led by the outstanding foot of 1st yr P Anger.
Miami has a very young tm with 20 frosh or soph listed on 2 deep incl the K’s & P’s. The Canes lead
the nation with 18 diff players scoring a TD TY. Miami has kept its opponents under 20 pts in four of its
L/7 games. During the tm’s winning streak, the Hurricanes have outscored opponents by a 25-17 avg.
The Canes have only had 2 players (C Shannon & LB Cook) start all 12 gms. UM runs a 2 QB system,
rFR Robert Marve has been name ACC Rookie POW 2x’s and true Fr Jacory Harris 3x’s TY. RB Javarris
James has been hampered TY with inj, missing 4 gms and RB Graig Cooper took over the top spot.
WR Aldarius Johnson was susp for the ssn finale. The true Fr is Miami’s leading receiver and he will
be avail here. WR & PR/KR Travis Benjamin could miss the bowl because of a high ankle sprain. The
Canes OL avg 6’5” 311 with 2 Sr starters and is anchored by LT Jason Fox (6’7” 307, PS#22). Miami
is avg 4.0 ypc and has all’d 25 sks (6.8%). UM has our #60 offense and #49 defense. The DL avg 6’2”
278 lbs and is all’g 3.8 ypc rush. The DL has 20.5 of UM’s 31 sacks. UM did lose their top DL mid-ssn
(Eric Moncur). True Fr LB Sean Spence was name Def Rookie POY finishing 3rd on the tm in tfl & led
LB w/tfl. UM’s pass D is all’g 169 ypg (51%) but only has 4 int (#118 NCAA). Miami has our #46 sp
tms. 2nd Tm ACC K & P Matt Bosher has scored more pts thru 12 games (89) than both K’s LY (67).
UM is avg 19.4 ypr KR and 11.5 PR and all’g 17.3 KR and 9.2 PR. OC Patrick Nix was contacted by
Auburn for the HC job.
Miami limps into this bowl having lost 2 straight and failing to cover the L/3. They’ve won and covered
just 1 gm vs a winning team and that was a defensive battle vs Wake Forest. California may have been
known for a productive offense but their defense got them to 8 wins as they’ve held 5 of the L/6 opps
to under 17 pts while covering 5 of the L/6. The Bears are much more balanced behind the rush attack
of RB Best and look for them to bring the pressure vs a pair of young UM QB’s.
FORECAST: MIAMI, FL/CAL UNDER 50’
RATING: 2*MIAMI, FL/CAL UNDER 50’
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
LT leads this series 5-1 SU & 3-1 ATS but these two haven’t met S/’96 when LT topped NI 40-14 (-14’)
in DeKalb. Tech is making its 1st bowl appearance S/’01 & only its 5th in schl hist. Of LT’s four previous
bowls, 3 of them were right here in the Independence Bowl (‘77, ‘78, ‘90). The Bulldogs are 1-2-1 SU
(1-1 ATS) in bowls. Tech’s last bowl appearance was in the ‘01 Humanitarian Bowl when they dropped a
49-24 (+6’) decision to Clem. While this is just the Huskies’ 4th bowl, it’s their 3rd in the L/5Y. NI is 2-1 SU
& 1-1 ATS in bowls but was manhandled by #25 TCU 37-7 in their last bowl (Poinsettia, ‘06), with their
only pts coming on a blk’d punt. NI is 5-12 ATS as a favorite the L3Y (2-0 as AF TY) but LT is 3-7 as an
AD under Dooley. While neither HC has coached a bowl game, NI HC Kill led his S Ill team to the 1-AA
playoffs 5 times. LT went 2-4 SU & 3-3 ATS vs 6 bowl-elig tms TY being outscored by 9 ppg & outgained
by 52 ypg. In 6 gms vs bowl-caliber tms TY, the Huskies went 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS and were outscored
by an avg of 9 ppg & outgained by 37 ypg. NI has 11 senior starters/15 upperclassmen while LT has
just 4 seniors/10 upperclassmen in starting roles. LT was targeted early by the Independence Bowl as a
replacement for the SEC and Big 12 confs that didn’t have enough bowl elig teams to fill their slots. NI
was a surprising pick for this bowl as most people thought the Sun Belt had a tie-in and that ULL would
be a perfect candidate. A member of NI’s administration was a longtime member of the Independence
Bowl comittee and they grabbed the bid despite not being known as a travelling team. Since LT is only
68 miles away from Shreveport, they will have a huge crowd edge over NI.
LT started TY off with a bang by claiming an outright upset over Miss St (22-14, +8) in the 1st ever
visit by an SEC tm to Ruston. LT’s ssn was hanging in the balance as Tech was 3-4 heading into Nov, but
they won 4 of their L/5 gms securing a bowl bid. GT transfer QB Bennett st’d the 1st 5 gms & avg 125 ypg
but his low comp % & poor ratio forced Dooley to make a change. ******* was moved into the #1 spot &
while he avg’d just 84 ypg, his comp % & ratio was an improvement & the off responded with him under C
as Tech went 5-2 in gms with him as the starter. LT’s running gm is what makes their off go & they have a
pair of All-WAC RB’s in Porter & Jackson as the duo has helped Tech avg 195 ypg on the ground. Porter, an
‘08 WAC pick, backed up Jackson, a 2x WAC choice (‘06 & ‘07), for the L2Y before having a breakout ssn
TY. WR Livas leads the team with 157 all-purp ypg & was named 1st Tm WAC for his ST prowess. Tech’s
OL avg 6’4” 298 with zero Sr starters & paved the way for 4.8 ypc while all’g 22 sks (7%). LT’s DL avg 6’3”
260 with no Sr starters & is led by 1st Tm WAC DT Smith. The Bulldogs have our #86 D overall and their
rush D is #2 in the WAC & #11 in the NCAA all’g just 100 ypg. DB Baker was #2 in the conf in tkls & #21 in
the NCAA, but Tech’s #94 rated pass D is all’g 280 ypg (#116 in the NCAA). P Keagle earned 2nd Tm WAC
honors & is a big key in Tech’s #6 ST rankings. PK Oestriecher missed 5 of his L/7 FGs.
After an inj-plagued 2-10 ssn in ‘07, NI ret’d plenty of experience for new HC Kill to work with. They
were 5-3 with their 3 losses by a comb 11 pts & incl 2 to BCS tms before losing 3 of the next 4. NI has
our #94 off and was down to its 3rd-string QB at times but rFr Harnish played in 9 gms starting 8, incl the
L/6. The Huskies saw their streak of 9 str yrs with a 1,000 yd rusher (#1 NCAA) come to an end as HC Kill
likes to rotate players & had 4 RB & 1 QB with 200+ yds rush. The rec corps also felt the impact as the top
WR had just 32 rec but 6 players had 12+ catches. The OL avg 6’6” 294 with 2 Sr’s & opened holes for 4.4
ypc and all’d 16 sks (5.9%). Three OL were named 3rd Tm MAC in C Adamski, LG Onyebuagu, & RT Brost.
The #46 D is the reason NI is here. After allowing 31 ppg & 434 ypg in ‘07, NI all’d just 18 ppg & 304 ypg.
The cornerstone of the D is DE English, who became the 1st def player in MAC history to earn B2B Vern
Smith Awards & is the Huskies’ career sk (31.5) & tfl (55) leader. The DL is allowing 4.2 ypc but has 17 of
the tm’s 22 sks (77%). DE English & Bice (3rd Tm MAC) have a comb 13 sks on the yr. The LB corps is led
by MLB McCarthy (3rd Tm MAC). The Huskies are the MAC’s #1 pass D with 3 Sr starters & are all’g just
163 ypg (63%) with a 13-6 ratio. They have our #44 ST & are led by K Salerno who hit a schl rec’d tying 52
yd FG vs BG. Another reason for the Huskies’ turnaround is 5 blk’d punts while allowing 0 blks.
Call this the “Block Bowl” as these tms have comb for 9 blk’d P’s. NI is all’g just 18 ppg and has held
8 of the L/10 opps to 16 or less. LT is all’g just 3.0 ypc rush and faces a rush oriented tm. Neither tm has
explosive WR’s which allows the front 7’s to load the box and make this gm a battle in the trenches.
FORECAST: N ILLINOIS/LA TECH UNDER 47
RATING: 2*UNDER 47
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
First meeting. The Papajohns.com Bowl features two of the NCAA’s hottest teams as they have
combined to win the L/10 SU and the L/16 ATS. They had 2 common opp’s (NC & USF) with USF (-9’)
defeating NCSt 41-10 but NCSt (+11) upsetting NC, 41-10. RU (-6) was crushed by NC 44-12 but they
upset USF 49-16 (+8). LY NCSt came back to win L/4 after a 1-5 start, but lost its L/2 to miss out on the
postseason. TY they started 2-6 before becoming the 1st team in ACC history to finish the ssn 4-0 in conf
play after beginning at 0-4 and they have won 7 str ATS. This will be St’s 1st bowl gm under HC O’Brien
in his 2nd yr with the Pack and he is 6-1 SU/ATS in bowl gms. NCSt last played in the ‘05 Meineke Car
Care Bowl & shutout USF 14-0. This is the Wolfpack’s 24th bowl & the tm has posted an all-time mark of
12-10-1. Rutgers ret’d 15 starters TY but suffered a huge loss in RB Rice & had to replace 7 asst coaches
incl RB coach Ver Steeg. The Knights struggled early on as the off avg’d just 13 ppg vs IA opp’s. They
became the BE’s hottest tm winning the L/9 ATS including L/6 SU & avg 46 ppg the L/5. They became
the 7th tm in NCAA history to go to a bowl after a 1-5 start. The Knights are in their 4th straight bowl &
5th in history. RU is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS under Schiano incl LY’s 52-30 win over Ball St in the International
Bowl. NCSt plays on grass while the Knights are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS on grass the L/3Y. NCSt has faced
10 bowl tms TY (4-6 SU but 8-2 ATS). RU played 8 bowl tms (3-5 SU/5-3 ATS) being outgained 367-347.
NCSt has 13 upperclassmen starters incl 8 Sr’s while RU has 7 Sr’s among 14 upperclassmen. RU’s
dominating stretch run has energized the fan base while the Pack fans should be hungry for a bowl after
a 2 year hiatus and are just a day’s drive away. Both teams were 2-3 SU & 4-1 ATS in road gms TY.
For the first time in ACC history (only 3rd time in history of coll FB) a conf has 10 bowl elig tms. With
NCSt getting an at-large bid, all 6 Atlantic Div tms are bowling TY. State is playing the best football of
anyone in the ACC, has an exciting rFr QB & a D that has suddenly figured out how to take the ball
away. QB Russell Wilson has been impressive TY, throwing ONLY 1 int (226 passes w/o an int) & earned
himself 1st Tm ACC & ACC Rookie of the Yr. TB Brown has 2,500 career rush yds. WR Spencer currently
ranks 7th in the ACC in rec ypg. The OL avg 6’4” 308 with 2 Sr starters. State is avg only 3.6 ypc rush
& has all’d 28 sks (7.9%). NCSt has our #64 off & #79 def. The DL avg 6’3” 273 & has 21 of State’s 23
sks. The rush D is all’g 4.2 ypc. The line is led by HM ACC DE Willie Young who has a 680 lb squat. LB
Nate Irving is one of, if not the best D player & has 4 int (NCSt LB rec). The pass D is allowing 243 ypg
(#94 in the NCAA) but has 17 int (T-#13 NCAA). NCSt has our #41 sp tms. They are avg 23.2 on KR &
8.3 on PR while all’g 22 KR & 5.1 PR.
The Knights have our #28 ranked off avg 29 ppg & 395 ypg. QB Teel struggled early but caught fire in the
2H breaking several RU records incl career pass TD’s. In the finale vs UL Teel broke the RU single gm rec’d
with 447 yds & threw 7 TD’s tying a BE rec’d. Teel is avg 347 ypg (70%) & with a 20-5 ratio L/5 gms. The
run game suffered early with Young inj’d in 1st gm. He ret’d but the ground game was still inconsistent avg
129 ypg (4.0). Teel has a slew of rec weapons incl WR Britt (#2 in NCAA in rec ypg with 114), Underwood &
perhaps the fastest player ever at RU in Brown. With all of the attention on the WR’s, TE’s Brock & Graves
are capable options. Schiano mixed up the OL early on before finding the right combo. They comb for 76
career sts avg 6’6” 302 & paved the way for 129 ypg (4.0) all’g 19 sks (5.0%). RU’s speedy D has our #52
ranking all’g 19 ppg & 324 ypg. The smallish DL avg’s 6’4” 261 all’g 139 ypg (3.8) with 15 of the tm’s 28 sks
(54%) and is led by Sr’s Tverdov (13 tfl) & Westerman (10.5 tfl). The LB corps features the top 2 tklrs in Sr
Malast & Jr D’Imperio. The secondary has been much maligned TY. RU has our #111 pass eff defense all’g
185 ypg (61%) with a 9-7 ratio. They are led by 2x All-BE FS Greene who turned down the NFL to return for
his Sr ssn. RU has our #66 ST’s ranking & has found it difficult to replace LY’s K/P Ito.
Two of the hottest teams matchup as RU comes into this game with 6 straight W’s and 9 straight covers
while NCSt enters with 4 straight W’s and 7 straight covers. The QB’s have been just as hot as RU QB
Teel finished with a 20-5 ratio run and NCSt QB Wilson with a 16-1 ratio. With the extra prep time we side
with the O’Brien led squad that will have his young QB ready and RB Brown healthy. There’s no denying
Rutgers is on an offensive roll but these two tms are evenly matched and the spread is too large.
FORECAST: NC STATE (+) THE PTS RUTGERS BY 1
RATING: 2* NC STATE
ALAMO BOWL
Ninth overall meeting (4-4) with the L/gm in ‘87. This is MU’s 1st Alamo Bowl while NU’s previous
visit was not an enjoyable one losing to Neb 66-17 (+14’ in ‘00). MU also has painful memories of
the Alamodome as they entered #1 prior to LY’s B12 Title gm before losing to OU 38-17 (+3). This
is Cats’ first bowl under HC Fitzgerald & they have not won a bowl since the ‘48 Rose Bowl (0-5 SU,
1-4 ATS). Under HC Pinkel, MU is 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS in bowls (4-1 ATS Pinkel all-time). NU is 4-1 ATS
in domes while Mizzou will be playing in a dome for the 4th time the L2Y (2-1 SU/ATS). NU went 4-2
as a dog TY and has played just 4 bowl tms (2-2 SU/ATS) getting outscored 29-19 (-8 ypg). MU was
3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS vs bowl tms (+5 ppg, +36 ypg). The teams have a common foe in Illinois who is
the rival of both schools. The Tigers won 52-42 (-9) in their opener while the Cats (+2) beat the Illini
27-10 in its finale. Both are veteran squads with MU having 12 Sr starters and 16 upperclassmen
while NU has 9 and 15. NU last played on Nov 22 while MU played on Dec 6, and does have the
adv of a shorter trip (est 400 miles closer) & familar surroundings.
The Cats’ 9-3 ssn is even more remarkable when you consider the fact that the tm’s strength coming
into the ssn figured to be its Sr laden offense which featured RB Tyrell Sutton and QB CJ Bacher. Sutton
broke his wrist and missed the final 4 gms of the ssn but is exp to return for the bowl. Bacher struggled
(#87 NCAA pass eff) under new OC McCall and also missed 2 gms due to a hamstring inj. Bkup Mike
Kafka ran for a Big Ten QB record 217 yds vs Minnesota which helped a run game that was down to
its 3rd string TB by season’s end. The tm’s top 3 receivers are all Sr’s in Eric Peterman, Rasheed Ward
and Ross Lane. The OL did a good job of pass blocking allowing just 17 sks (4.1%) but the run game
was inconsistent with a 3.9 ypc. The defense carried the Cats as new DC Hankwitz’s unit improved in
nearly every area. NU went from allowing 411 ypg and 31 ppg in ‘07 to 343 and 19 this year. The team
had 33 sacks led by DE Wootton’s 9 which was a big upgrade from the 18 they had in ‘07. The injury
problems extended to the defense as their top LB, MLB Arrington, was lost for the season due to a
knee injury. The secondary is led by one of the Big Ten’s top S combos in leading tackler Brad Phillips
and Brendan Smith who made the Cats’ play of the year by ret’g an int 48 yds for a TD with :12 left to
beat Minnesota. The special teams are #63 in our rankings with reliable K Amondo Villarreal.
Missouri has been rather unimpressive after a 5-0 start TY (4-4 SU & 2-6 ATS) only outscoring opp’s
by 5 ppg (+ 13 ypg)! It also is a surprise that MU shared the B12 North Title with Neb after high expectations.
They do have our #8 off avg 43 ppg & 497 ypg. QB Daniel was in the mix of a lot of Heisman talk,
but that has gone away & he has thrown an int in 8 straight gms (2+ in 5 incl a lost fmbl the L/2). 2nd
TM B12 RB Washington has three 100+ yd gms & when he rushed for 70+ TY, the Tigers were a perfect
8-0! 1st TM B12 WR Maclin is a dangerous weapon not only catching passes, but on end-arounds &
in the return units. He is avg an amazing 204 ttl ypg! Mackey winner TE Coffman has been slowed by
a turf toe, but should be 100% here (MU’s all-time TE leader in rec/yds). The OL avg 6’5” 309 (2 Sr
starter) paving the way for 5.3 all’g just 15 sks (2.9%). The def is ranked #53, all’g 28 ppg & 414 ypg,
but has been torched for 100+ pts & 1,000+ yds the L/2 gms. The DL avg 6’3” 280 (3 Sr) accounting for
20 (71%) of MU’s 28 sks. The Tigers have a solid front 7 led by 1st Tm B12 LB Weatherspoon & DL’s
2nd TM B12 Sulak & 1st TM B12 Hood. S Moore (1st Tm B12) leads a secondary that is ranked #84 in
our pass eff def allowing 285 ypg (64%) with a 26-13 ratio (keep in mind they have faced 6 opp’s who
ranked #19 or higher in pass off, NU is #63). The Tigers have our #47 ST unit led by ex-diver 1st Tm
B12 K Wolfert & KR/PR Maclin who is threat to take it to the house everytime he touches the ball.
Mizzou had hoped for a better bowl coming into this season and are disappointed dropping their
L/2 gms getting outscored by a 102-58 margin. Northwestern beat just 2 bowl teams this season
and while a 9-3 record is commendable, they have been overly unimpressive. Missouri has the skill
players to exploit the Wildcats defense and posses a defensive unit that has faced much better
competition than this Northwestern offense can bring to the table.
FORECAST: MISSOURI BY 21
RATING: 3* MISSOURI
HUMANITARIAN BOWL
UN is making its 4th consec bowl appearance. The Wolf Pack is 3-5 SU & 1-3 ATS in bowl gms (1-4 SU
& 1-2 ATS under HC Ault). UN is 1-7 SU & 3-5 ATS vs BCS tms in Ault’s latest stint as HC here. The Wolf
Pack’s only previous meeting vs an ACC school was against Miami here in ‘05 in the MPC Computers Bowl
in a game UN lost 21-20 (+3’). These two have not faced a common opp TY. This will be MD’s 6th bowl in 8
yrs but it’s their 1st trip to Idaho. When MD was at its best TY, they could beat anyone, but there were just as
many gms where they didn’t appear to be mentally ready to play & that explains the mediocre final record &
the lack of enthusiasm among the bowls as they fell far down the ACC’s pecking order. The Terps have won
3 of their L/4 bowl gms (Friedgen 3-2 SU/ATS in bowls). LY the Terps faced Oreg St in the Emerald Bowl &
were outFD’d 24-11 & outgained 383-224, losing 21-14 (+5). MD has faced 8 bowl caliber tms & went 5-3
SU & 4-4 ATS. UN has faced 7 bowl eligible tms and went 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS. The Terps are 2-4 SU & 1-5
ATS on art turf the L/3Y while UN plays their home gms on the fake stuff. MD has 30 Sr’s incl 10 Sr starters
and 18 upperclassmen starters. UN has 15 Sr’s incl 7 starters with 11 total upperclassmen starters. This is
only MD’s 2nd gm vs a WAC foe (‘90 Independence Bowl vs LT 34-34, -1).
MD stepped it up vs top competition going 4-1 vs the Top 25 (incl 4 straight) but was just 3-4 vs other opp.
In the reg ssn finale QB Turner threw for 360 yds but it wasn’t enough as MD lost to #20 BC which snapped
a 6 gm win streak vs ranked foes. RB Scott is the #2 rusher in the ACC & was named 1st Tm ACC. WR
Heyward-Bey missed the BC gm with an inj’d calf and is ? here. The OL avg 6’4” 313 & is led by 3 Sr’s, 1st
Tm ACC C Williams & HM ACC’s OT Burley & OG Thomas, and is avg 4.1 ypc rush but has given up 26 sks
(T-#76 NCAA). MD has our #50 off & #59 D. The DL avg 6’3” 288, all’g 3.9 ypg rush. The DL is anchored by
HM ACC DT Navarre. Soph LB Wujciak has been impressive in his 1st ssn (inj’d LY) & is #2 in the ACC in tkls.
The secondary is w/o its leader, Sr Barnes (ssn ending shldr inj 10/18) and they finished just #88 in pass eff
D allowing 206 ypg (62%) with a 17-8 ratio. There will be some uncertainty on the D as DC Cosh left to be the
DC & asst HC at K-St. OLB coach Al Seamonson was named the interim DC. The Terps have our #45 ST’s.
P Baltz ranks 1st in the ACC in net & avg. KR Smith set the MD single-ssn rec’d for KR yds, breaking Josh
Wilson’s mark of 847 (‘06). MD is #7 in NCAA in PR def all’g 4.1 ypr but is all’g a woeful 22.5 ypr on KR.
When Ault devised the “Pistol” scheme, it was designed to generate a stronger run gm out of a passing
set. While it was effective in its initial stages, it has rapidly developed & evolved over the L/3Y to become one
of the nation’s most effective & explosive offensive formations. TY’s version is avg an NCAA best 6.2 ypc &
features 4 1st Tm WAC selections in QB Kaepernick (WAC POY), RB Taua, WR Mitchell & C Green. They each
help power the #2 rush off (291 ypg), #5 overall off (511 ypg) & #13 scoring off (39.4) in the NCAA behind
a rugged OL avg 6’4” 290. Ault uses phrases like “Trigger Man” & “Nevada Back” to describe the type of QB
& RB needed to fit his scheme best & he’s got one of each. Both dual threat QB Kaepernick & the versatile
Taua inherited their positions due to inj’s & haven’t looked back since. Kaepernick, just the 5th player in NCAA
history to rush for 1,000 yds & pass for 2,000 yds, is the epitome of the signal caller needed to run UN’s Pistol
effectively with his read option ability, while Taua (#9 in NCAA) is the top ground threat. When the opposition
keys in on the Wolf Pack’s run gm, UN can turn to 1st Tm WAC WR Mitchell for his ability to stretch the field
as he is #2 in the WAC in rec ypg. UN’s DL avg 6’3” 265 & is highlighted by DE’s Basped & Moch who have
combined for 19.5 sks TY. The unit has been stout vs the run all’g just 75 ypg (#3 in the NCAA) & only 2.6
ypc. The Wolf Pack improved its run D from a yr ago and is markedly better as they shaved off 99 ypg from LY
(174 ypg). The Wolf Pack’s Achillies’ heel TY has been its pass D which is all’g 321 ypg (#119 in the NCAA).
UN’s ST unit has excelled behind 1st Tm WAC PK Jaekle & 2nd Tm WAC P Langley. Jaekle leads the WAC
in scoring & Langley is #11 in the NCAA in punt avg but will miss the bowl (inj).
Both teams are coming off bowl losses with Nevada getting shutout (tms 2-2 ATS if shutout in LY’s
bowl). Maryland has had an up-and-down season playing to the level of its competition as there were 6
upsets in their games TY. LY the Terps took on the NCAA’s #1 rush D (OSU) in the bowl and were held
to 19 yds (0.8). On paper they’ll face tough D front but that’s misleading as the Pack has faced a sked
loaded with pass happy teams and allowed 185 rush yds to LT in the finale. Being a dog to a WAC team
should get the Terps’ attention as they end their schizophrenic season on an up note.
FORECAST: MARYLAND BY 6
RATING: 2* MARYLAND
TEXAS BOWL
First meeting. The gm is technically at a neutral site, but Rice is playing in its hometown. Reliant
Stadium is a grass surface, while both tms play HG’s on turf. Rice has played just 5 gms on grass the
L/3Y going 1-4 SU (3-2 ATS), while WM is 3-1 (3-0-1 ATS) in the same time frame. WM won 9 gms
TY for the 1st time S/’00 and their 3 losses were to tms with a comb 28-5 record. They beat Illinois
23-17 (+7’) making it 3 str yrs they have upset a BCS school. The Broncos did finish the year with
2 str ATS losses incl a disappointing 45-22 loss at #15 Ball St (+10’) and are 2-2 as a dog on the
yr. WM is making their 4th bowl appearance (2nd in L/3Y) and is 0-1 SU (1-0 ATS) under HC Cubit,
losing the ‘06 International Bowl to Cincy (27-24, +7). They played 5 bowl eligible tms and went 2-3
(1-4 ATS) being outscored 37-27 and outgained 444-399. Rice is making its 2nd bowl appearance in
the L/3Y after not playing in a bowl for 45 yrs. In ‘06, the Owls squared off against SBC Co-Champ
Troy in the New Orleans Bowl and were routed 41-17 (-5). HC Bailiff, CUSA’s Coach of the Yr, will be
coaching in his 1st bowl. Rice enters on a 6 gm SU win streak (5-1 ATS) and has won 9 gms for the
1st time S/’49. They are 5-1 ATS as a fav TY (avg cover by 17). Rice has played 6 bowl caliber tms
TY and went 3-3 SU/ATS, being outscored 45-32 and outgained 542-464. These numbers are slightly
misleading as one of the losses was at #3 Texas (52-10, +29) where they were outgained 600-318.
Both tms start 14 upperclassmen, with each tm having 7 Sr’s in the starting lineup.
The Broncos have our #47 off avg 30 ppg and 423 ypg. QB Hiller led the MAC in pass yds and was
2nd in pass eff and ttl off (294 ypg). He tied former QB Tim Lester (‘99) for WM’s single ssn rec’d for TD
passes. RB West needs just 30 yds to become the Broncos’ 8th 1,000 yd rusher S/’97. West had five
100+ yd gms TY incl a ssn high 175 vs the MAC’s #1 D (NI). WR Simmons tied NFL star Greg Jennings
for the Broncos’ single ssn rec’d with 98 rec. Simmons had five 100+ yd gms TY incl a ssn best 174 yds
vs Illinois. TE Branden Ledbetter missed the L/2 gms with inj, but is exp to return here. The Broncos
OL is led by LT Phillip Swanson (1st Tm MAC) and avg 6’4” 300. Despite not having a Sr in the starting
lineup, they have paved the way for 4.3 ypc while all’g just 14 sks (2.8%). The Broncos have our #72 D
all’g 24 ppg and 390 ypg. The DL, which is led by DE Zach Davidson, avg 6’3” 260 and is all’g 3.8 ypc
and has 17.5 of the tm’s 22 sks. The LB unit is led by WLB Austin Prichard and MLB Boston McCornell.
The WM secondary is all’g 249 ypg passing (56.2%) with a 17-13 ratio, led by FS Louis Delmas, who
is the first Bronco to reach 100 tkls in a ssn S/’03. The ST’s unit (#54) is all’g 18.8 on KR’s and 14.8 on
PR’s but does have 2 blk’d K. While the Broncos are avg 22.4 ypr on KR, they avg just 7.2 ypr on PR.
Rice’s dynamic off (#17) is avg 42 ppg led by CUSA MVP QB Clement and WR Dillard who hold
the NCAA rec’d for a pass-catch duo with 50 TD passes. Clement had seven 300+ gms TY, incl 4 str
to end the reg ssn. Dillard is #1 in the NCAA with 19 TD catches and is the NCAA leader in career TD
rec (59). WR James Casey has emerged as a versatile playmaker who lines up at multiple positions
(WR, RB, TE, QB) and has caught, ran and thrown for a TD in the same gm 2x this ssn. Casey set a
CUSA record by hauling in 104 passes. RB Ugokwe leads the rush attack and has 556 yds the L/6
gms (93 ypg, 5.4). The OL avg’s just 6’3” 283 paving the way for 4.2 ypc while all’g 26 sks (5.5%).Rice
has struggled with its 4-2-5 def and has our #114 unit. They are all’g 35 ppg but have fared better as
of late all’g 29 ppg the L/5. The DL avg’s 6’4” 267 and is all’g 193 ypg (5.2) rush and has generated
12 of the tm’s 22 sks. Rice is #81 in our pass eff rankings all’g 274 ypg (58%) with a 32-14 ratio. FS
Andrew Sendejo directs the secondary and leads the tm in tkls. The D did receive an emotional boost
as Sr LB Brian Raines ret’d for the final reg ssn gm just 6 wks after breaking his forearm and being
told his Rice career was probably over. The Owls have our #89 ST’s, but have blk’d 4 kicks.
Stats are great but take a look at the checklist. While Rice gets the publicity for a dynamic offense,
Western has the talent to stay with them. The difference is on the defensive side as the Broncos have
a decisive edge. There are some under the radar NFL caliber players on the WM side which might
surprise you tonight. HC Cubit will have his team ready as they have traveled to Nebraska, Missouri,
WV, Florida St and have recorded upsets of Illinois, Iowa and Virginia all in the past 3 seasons.
FORECAST: W MICHIGAN (+) BY 3
RATING: 3* W MICHIGAN
HOLIDAY BOWL
HC Gundy has led his Cowboy squad to bowl appearances in 3 of his 4 yrs at the helm (2-0 SU/ATS)
& will now attempt to guide the prog to just their 4th 10 win ssn all-time. This is the 1st meeting between
these schools & the Cowboys 2nd Holiday Bowl appearance (62-14, -2’, thrashing of Wyoming in ‘88).
The Ducks journey to the Holiday Bowl for the 3rd time (1-1 SU & ATS) & make a bowl appearance for
the 11th time in the L12Y. HC Bellotti is 5-6 SU (6-5 ATS) in his bowl trips with the Ducks incl a dominating
56-21 (+6) win in the Sun Bowl LY vs USF. Both tms won & covered vs helpless Wash St TY with
OSU posting a 39-13 win (367-196 edge) & UO rolling to a 63-14 victory (507-271 edge). OSU is 3-3
SU & 4-2 ATS vs bowl tms TY being outgained by a 508-491 clip while the Ducks went 2-3 SU & ATS
also being outgained (472-438). OSU was 7-1 ATS as a fav TY while UO was 1-2 SU/ATS as a dog. The
Ducks are 2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS on grass while OSU has struggled recently going 3-6 SU & 4-5 ATS L3Y.
Cowboys have 8 Sr starters among 18 upperclassmen while UO has 11 Sr’s (16 upperclassmen).
For the 2nd consec ssn UO was forced to use 4 diff QB’s on the yr due to a rash of inj’s. QB Roper
began the ssn as the starter but was inj’d making way for JUCO & late signee Masoli to lead for the
remainder of the ssn. Masoli struggled in the pass gm early on as he had a run first attitude but he
quickly matured & had huge performances in their L/2 gms of the reg ssn. The Ducks were led by the
dynamic duo of RB’s Johnson & Blount who comb for 2,000+ yds on the ssn & accompanied by Masoli,
set the single-ssn schl rush rec’d for the 2nd consec yr surpassing ‘07’s mark of 3,272 yds with an even
stronger 3,334 yds TY. WR Scott & TE Dickson led their respective positions in rec as UO finished with
our #6 off. The OL avg 6’5” 307 & is led by C Unger & LT Tupou who helped pave the way for 278 ypg
(6.1) & 42 rushing TD (#2 NCAA). They also all’d a solid 18 sks (5.3%). The Duck D has our #61 ranking.
Led by DE’s Reed & Tukuafu, the DL avg 6’4” 278 & all’d 119 ypg (3.1) with 26 of the tm’s 38 sks (68%).
The LB unit is the forgotten bunch of this stellar D but has just 1 Sr starter making this a very underrated
& young group. UO’s secondary features an abundance of playmakers (all 4 starters earned all-conf
recognition) led by ROV Chung but they finished a disappointing #46 in pass eff D all’g 264 ypg (58%)
with a 24-14 ratio as their off put them ahead in many games forcing opp’s to pass often in an attempt
to catch up. The ST ranks #40 featuring strong performances from members of the ret gm.
OSU’s 42 ppg & 489 ypg (#7 NCAA) are the most by a Cowboy squad S/’88 (when Gundy played
QB here). OSU’s 3 losses TY were vs tms ranked #1, #2 & #3. OSU ret’d 7 starters from LY but had to
replace its top RB & WR. QB Robinson started his 1st full ssn under center with no distractions & posted
the 3rd highest single ssn mark in schl hist in ttl yds. OSU has avg 230+ ypg both rushing & passing
the L2Y. 1st Tm B12/Doak Walker semi-finalist Hunter (#6 in NCAA in rushing) posted nine 100+ yd
performances while getting to the EZ at least twice in 5 gms (42%). AA/1st Tm B12/Bilentnikoff finalist
WR Bryant broke OSU’s single ssn TD rec rec’d (70+ yds in 10 gms). Mackey finalist TE Pettigrew (6’5”
260) was slowed by inj earlier in the yr but will be 100% & provides another weapon downfield not only
as a pass catcher but also as a devastating blk’r. The OL avg 6’5” 293 (2 Sr starters) paving the way for
the #7 rush off at 256 ypg (5.6) all’g just 13 sks (4.7%). They are led by 1st Tm B12 OT Okung (1st time
in OSU history 3 players on 1st Tm). The def ret’d 6 starters from a unit that gave up 443 ypg (worst in 20
yrs), but TY all’d 27 ppg & just 392 ypg (#43). DL avg 6’3” 281 (2 Sr) all’g 124 ypg (4.0) while accounting
for 69% (9) of the team’s scant 13 sks. LB Sexton (2nd Tm B12) teamed with Lavine & Lemon to make
up the B12’s most underrated LB corp. OSU is ranked #65 in our pass eff def allowing 269 ypg (63%)
with a 27-11 ratio. The ST units (#12) are led by 1st Tm B12 KR/PR & B12 ST POY Bryant & 2nd Tm
B12/Ray Guy winner Fodge (#2 in NCAA in net). DB Cox has 4 KR TD (best in OSU history).
A pair of 9-3 teams matchup in what historically is always an exciting bowl. Each team has excellent
rush attacks although OSU does rate the edge in the passing game with the Robinson/Bryant duo. OSU
has been tested this year as their 3 losses were to Top 3 foes while Oregon only has 2 wins vs bowl
teams. One big matchup will be the Oregon K as he had 26 TBs which negates the OSU return game
led by Cox’s 30.1 KR avg. This could be another high scoring shoot-out as Oregon and OSU’s offenses
have topped 54 pts a combined 10 times this season.
FORECAST: OKLAHOMA STATE BY 4
RATING: No Play
ARMED FORCES BOWL
These tms met earlier TY in a gm that was moved to Dallas (SMU’s HF) due to Hurricane Ike. The gm
was played at 10 am in windy/rainy conditions in front of about 2,000 fans. AF was up 17-7 at half then
31-7 late 3Q before UH staged a furious comeback. They got within 31-28, but AF rec’d the onside K &
ran out the clock. AF was outgained 534-380, and did not comp a pass, but forced 2 TO’s while playing
mistake free. AF HC Troy Calhoun has taken the Falcons to a bowl gm in both of his yrs here (0-1 SU &
ATS). Calhoun’s 17 wins in 2 seasons are the 2nd most ever for a service acad HC in his 1st 2 yrs. In LY’s
Armed Forces Bowl vs Cal, AF (+4) built a 21-0 lead, but late 3Q QB Carney tore his ACL & MCL. His inj
deflated the entire squad and Cal went on to win 42-36. UH is making its 4th str bowl appearance and 5th
in the L6Y (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS), but this is the 1st bowl as a HC for Kevin Sumlin. LY UH played in the Texas
Bowl and lost to TCU 20-13 (+6). AF went 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) away from home TY outscoring opps by an
avg of 27-15 and their only road loss was to TCU. UH is 2-5 SU (1-6 ATS) away from home being outscored
45-34 despite outgaining opp 529-455. AF is 6-3 SU (4-3 ATS) vs non-conf foes under Calhoun. AF had
a large crowd edge LY with many military fans and should have the same turnout here. TY AF played 6
bowl elig tms and was outscored 32-26 and outgained 426-337. UH played 6 bowl tms TY going 2-4 SU/
ATS, outscoring them 41-38 and outgaining them 565-478, but these margins were helped greatly by a
70-30 win over Tulsa (641-501 yd edge). AF has 16 upperclassmen starters incl 10 Sr’s. The Cougars
have 12 upperclassmen starters, incl 9 Sr’s. Both tms played Colo St with AF winning SU/ATS (38-17, -9’)
outgaining them 455-354, while UH lost SU/ATS (28-25, -6’) despite outgaining them 473-422.
AF’s #78 off is led by true Fr QB Tim Jefferson. Calhoun wanted to infuse more spd and Jefferson
started the L/7 gms, leading the team to a 5-2 SU record. He was named the MWC Frosh of the Yr and
is the 1st frosh in AF history to win that honor. AF has really gone with a youth movement TY as five of
the top 7 rushers are frosh or sophs but the leading rusher is Sr Newell. True Fr Clark is #2. When AF
chooses to pass (14.5%), the top rec is Jr Josh Cousins. The OL avg 6’4” 273 with 2 Sr’s and they have
started all 12 gms TY. They have given up just THREE sks (2.5%) while paving the way for 269 ypg rush
(#5 NCAA). LB Lamendola (#2 tklr MWC) leads our #62 D which is all’g just 139.8 ypg rush (3.6) with
33 sks (9.6%). The defense has held 5 opp’s under 300 ttl yds TY and has scored 3 defensive TD’s.
They have also recorded multiple TO’s in 10 of 12 gms TY and AF is +12 in TO margin. DL Paulson is
#2 in the MWC in sks. The pass D ranks #60 all’g just 196 ypg (58%) with a 14-11 ratio, led by the tm’s
#2 tklr, Chris Thomas. The ST’s rank #83 behind the leg of PK Harrison. The return gm is dominated
by underclassmen led by soph Reggie Rembert who leads in both PR and KR avg. The Falcons allow
19.3 on KR’s and 8.9 on PR’s.
The Cougars controlled their own destiny heading into the final wk of the ssn, needing a win to capture
the CUSA West title. They lost at Rice (56-42, -3) and instead of a possible Liberty Bowl berth, they
end up here. UH’s dynamic #11 off is avg 575 ypg (#2 NCAA) and 41 ppg. They are led by QB Keenum
(CUSA Off POY) who is #1 in the NCAA in ttl off avg 416 ypg. Keenum spreads the ball around as 9
players have caught TD passes TY. TE Hafner leads NCAA in rec and TD’s by a TE. You can’t overlook
the run game as UH is avg 161 ypg (5.2) on the ground. True Fr RB Beall (CUSA Frosh of the Yr) set
UH frosh records for rush yds and rush TD’s. Houston has our #93 D all’g 31 ppg and 419 ypg. They are
all’g 170 ypg (4.2) on the ground and are led by DE Phillip Hunt (CUSA Def POY) who has 12 sks (T-#4
NCAA), but the rest of the tm has only accounted for 10 sks. UH has our #87 pass eff D all’g 249 ypg
(61%) with a 27-13 ratio. The Cougars have our #60 ST’s and have blk’d 5 kicks (3 FG, 2 P), but they
have only made 10-16 FG’s (10-14 inside 40). Carrier is avg 22.5 on KR, including a 93 yd KR TD.
While we’re well aware it is historically not profitable to play against a military academy in a bowl,
Houston finds itself in a great situation. QB Keenum has exploded for almost 5,000 yds of total offense
and now faces an AF squad that they outgained 534-380 earlier this year. The D should also improve after
having seen the same option attack twice this year. The Houston scoring machine has topped 40+ in 7 of
the L/8 gms while AF’s offense has struggled down the stretch topping 24 just once in the L/5.
FORECAST: HOUSTON BY 10
RATING: 3* HOUSTON
SUN BOWL
This is the 75th edition of the Sun Bowl. These 2 have met just 1 time, a 38-13 Pitt victory in the ‘02
Insight Bowl. Pitt returns to a bowl for the 1st time since their 35-7 Fiesta Bowl defeat at the hands of
Utah in ‘04 (Panthers had 5 consec bowl appearances under former HC Harris). HC Wannstedt has been
under heavy criticism after recording a 16-19 record in his 1st 3 yrs but a turning point came LY with
their huge win over #2 WV which gave them momentum for ‘08. The Beavers are undefeated (4-0 SU
& 3-1 ATS) in bowl play under HC Riley who was honored as the P10 COY this ssn. Pitt has played in
the Sun Bowl twice winning in ‘75 & in ‘89. This is OSU’s 2nd trip here in the L3Y as they had a late 2pt
conv against Mizzou to pull out the win in ‘06. The Panthers went on to win 9 gms for the 1st time S/‘82
defeating rival WV again while the Beavers tallied a 8-4 mark incl a 2nd str home upset of USC. Pitt has
played 10 bowl caliber tms (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) outgaining them by a 355-329 mark while OSU went 4-3
SU (5-2 ATS) against bowl schools outgaining them by a 396-363 clip. Pitt has 8 Sr starters among 16
upperclassmen while the Beavers have 13 Sr’s & 17 upperclassmen. The Panthers are 5-3 SU & 6-2
ATS the L3Y on turf while OSU plays their HG’s on the fake stuff (6-2 SU/ATS TY). Pitt is 5-1 SU & 4-2
ATS on the road TY while the Beavers struggled some going 3-3 SU (4-2 ATS) away from Corvallis.
Pitt has our #35 offense avg 29 ppg & 356 ypg. DW was back on the hot seat after an opening loss
to BG as they were inconsistent early on. They defeated #10 USF, dominated Navy & won 4 of the L/5
for a share of #2 in the BE. Pitt delivered 5 come-from-behind wins in the 4Q. The Panthers scored on
41 of 45 drives in the RZ (9th NCAA). DW went with Bill Stull at QB, who was inj’d the 1st gm LY. The
offense is built around RB McCoy who carried the tm avg 117 ypg (4.9) & is tied for 2nd in the NCAA
with 21 TD. WR Kinder ret’d from an ‘07 knee inj to lead the tm in rec while Fr WR Baldwin (6’5”) has
emerged as a big play threat. TE’s Byham & Dickerson give Stull a balance of strength & speed. The
OL has 104 career sts & avg 6’4” 299 with 2 Sr’s incl CJ Davis who moved from LG to C after Houser
went down with inj. They’ve all’d 27 sks & paved the way for 143 ypg (3.8). Pitt has our #28 def ranking
all’g 23 ppg & 321 ypg. The Pitt DL avg 6’3” 274 all’g 128 ypg (3.6) led by bookends Romeus & Sheard
who comb for 11.5 sks. The LB’s are led by BE Def POY & AA Scott McKillop who is #2 in the NCAA in
solo tkls (78). OLB Ransom moved from WR prior to the opener due to inj & emerged as the #2 tklr. Pitt
has our #57 pass eff D all’g 193 ypg (55%) & a 19-14 ratio. The ST’s has our #43 ranking led by K Lee
who is Pitt’s career FG leader & has never missed a PAT in his career (113).
With inj’s the L2Y to QB Canfield, Lyle Moevao became the clear-cut starter to begin the ssn at signal
caller for the Beavers. After suffering a shldr inj that caused him to miss 2 gms, Moevao returned for the
“Civil War” vs the Ducks & while he threw a career-high 5 TD passes, he also had 2 costly int’s ret’d for TD
ending any chance for the program’s 1st Rose Bowl appearance S/’65. Many thought that OSU’s run game
would be down in ‘08 with the loss of RB Bernard but True Fr Jacquizz Rodgers silenced many critics as
he finished 2nd in the P10 in rushing yds on the ssn, earning P10 OPOY & FOY despite missing the “Civil
War” w/inj (should ret here). WR Stroughter ret’d TY & comb with Morales & James Rodgers (older bro of
Quizz, out for the bowl w/inj) to become one of the most dangerous units in the conf. The OL avg 6’3” 299
& paved the way for 165 ypg rush (4.3) led by OT Levitre. OSU all’d 16 sks TY (4.0%) & has our #20 off.
The DL avg 6’2” 286 with 3 Sr starters. OSU uses a heavy rotation on the line keeping players fresh and
they recorded 23 of the tm’s 34 sks (68%) on the ssn led by DE’s Norris & Butler. The LB unit consists of
3 playmakers leading our #32 overall def. OSU is #17 in pass eff D all’g 189 ypg (53%) with a 15-12 ratio
led by 4 solid Sr’s. OSU’s ST unit finished in decent shape at #40 thanks to big ssns in the ret gm.
Pitt’s goal the last few weeks was to beat W Virginia and Conn and make it to the Sun Bowl. They
also covered 4 of their L/5 gms with the only ATS loss by 1 pt at Cincy. OSU played with pressure
throughout Nov trying to reach the Rose Bowl, but fell short of that goal and now it is up to HC Riley
to re-motivate his troops. We believe he can do just that after having his team finish the year on an 8-2
ATS run while having played 3 BCS bowl teams. Oregon St’s DE’s can cause havoc on Pitt’s QB’s and
should take them out of their gameplan.
FORECAST: OREGON ST BY 11
RATING: 28 OREGON ST
MUSIC CITY BOWL
This is just the 3rd meeting between these 2 (BC 2-0) but the last game was in ‘63. BC is 13-18-1
all-time vs SEC tms. This is BC’s 10th consec bowl and a win here will extend the nation’s longest
active bowl game winning streak to 9 (6-2 ATS). BC played here in ‘01 and upset #16 Georgia 20-16
(+4). Jagodzinski is 1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS in bowls. This is Vandy’s first bowl trip S/’82 and VU HC Johnson
has never played or coached in a bowl gm but did lead his Furman team to the IAA Nat’l Champ gm
in ‘01. These 2 both faced WF TY and BC defeated WF 24-21 (+2) but Vandy lost 23-10 (+4) in their
reg ssn finale. The Eagles have faced 9 bowl caliber tms (VT 2x) going 6-4 SU & 5-5 ATS outgaining
them 308-279. Vandy has faced 7 bowl tms with a 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS record but was outscored by an
avg of 24-22 and outgained by an avg of 361-271. Vandy will definitely have the fan edge as this is
being played in their backyard and BC fans are known as poor travelers. BC has 7 Sr starters among
14 upperclassmen starters while VU only has 4 Sr starters among 16 upperclassmen. The Eagles
are 4-1 SU but 1-4 ATS away from Chestnut Hill as a fav and VU is 6-2 ATS as a dog TY (4-1 on road
w/3 outright upsets). Vandy has the schedule edge (#21-70).
BC, who was picked to finish 4th in the ACC Atlantic Div in the pressn, finished the reg ssn with a 9-3
record and advanced to their 2nd consec ACC Champ gm but once again were dealt a second-tier bowl.
They have lost 2 str yrs in the ACC Title game to VT and has lost the game that would have created a
BCS spot in 3 of the L/5Y. RFr QB Davis, subbing for the inj’d Crane (broken collarbone), is only starting
his 3rd game. In the ACC Champ game he threw for 263 yds (39.5%) throwing 2 int and was sk’d 5x. RB
Harris broke the BC frosh rushing record. The O-line avg 6’6” 307 and is anchored by 1st Tm ACC OG Clif
Ramsey and 2nd Tm ACC OT Anthony Castonzo. The Eagles are avg 3.9 ypc rush and have all’d 21 sks
(5.1%). They have our #68 offense and #20 defense. BC DL avg 6’3” 293 and is led by 1st Tm ACC DT
BJ Raji & 2nd Tm ACC Ron Brace. The rush D is only all’g 2.9 ypc (#7 NCAA) and 20 of the 34 sks are
by the DL. LB Mark Herzlich, who was named the ACC Def POY, is tied for #14 in the NCAA along with
S Paul Anderson with 6 int each. The Eagles lead the NCAA with 26 int and have ranked in the Top 25 in
int 7x’s S/’00. The secondary allowed 181 ypg pass (56%) but just 9 TD. BC’s D or sp tms have scored 9
times this season (5 IR TD, 1 FR TD, 1 PR TD, 1 blk P TD and 1 safety). The Eagles have our #100 ranked
sp tms. BC hasn’t tried a FG longer than 39 yds and that was NG in their 1st meeting vs VT.
This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Commodores as just 9 starters ret’d from ‘07,
but VU surprisingly started out 5-0 for the 1st time S/’43 upsetting 4 tms to climb to #13 in the AP poll.
In that 5-0 start, VU defeated a ranked tm at home for the 1st time S/‘92 (SC) but VU was outgained
325-225 in that 24-17 win, grabbed 4 int (incl 1 ret’d for TD) to beat Ole Miss 23-17 (outgained 385-
202), and defeated then #13 Aub for their 2nd win over a ranked opp TY (1st time S/’55). VU led the
nation in TO margin in the 1st 5 gms (+9), but finished +6. VU’s #104 off struggled with inconsistent
QB play with Nickson starting the 1st 6 until he was benched in their 1st loss of the yr to Miss St.
Adams started the next 3 (0-3 SU) until he was inj’d vs UF. Nickson st’d the L/3 incl their bowl clinching
win over UK, but Adams saw playing time in the L/2. Starting RB Jennings was banged up all yr
which opened the door for Jr RB Hawkins. WR Smith missed the 1st 4 gms TY with inj after starting
LY while VU lost 3 WR’s for the yr due to inj. The OL was rebuilt after losing all 5 starters from ‘07
and all’d 26 sks (8.7%) with the starters avg 6’6” 297. The DL avg 6’5” 269 and neither line has a Sr
starter. Vandy is known for producing solid LB’s and 2nd Tm SEC Benoist led the tm in tkls. Vandy has
a super secondary (#12 in pass D) led by 1st Tm SEC CB DJ Moore who was #2 in the SEC with 6
int and also contributed on off (216 ttl yds), and sp tms (top KR & PR). The Commodores’ D is #26 in
our rankings. Vandy suffered 5 blk’d punts TY causing their otherwise solid sp tms unit to rank #107.
BC has been an opportunistic team with 9 defensive and ST’s scores. Those opportunities will
be tougher to achieve against a tm that had time to prepare. Vandy’s offense has struggled with both
QB’s under 50% this year and throwing for a combined 13-11 ratio. The key will be BC’s defensive
front 7 and if they play to their potential, they have the ability to control this game.
FORECAST: BC/VANDERBILT UNDER 42
RATING: 2* UNDER
INSIGHT BOWL
Just the 7th meeting (3-3) with the last coming in ‘73. The most recent link between the schools
came in ‘97 when then-HC Mason left KU for Minnesota. Ironically, Mason’s last game came in the
Gophers’ only previous visit to Tempe (blew 31 pt lead & lost 44-41 to TT in ‘06, +7). Mason was axed
immediately after, opening the door for bowl virgin Tim Brewster who is familiar with Mangino from their
RRR days (Brewster on UT’s staff; Mangino w/OU’s). Mangino is 2-1 SU/ATS in bowls & is the only HC
to guide KU to 4. UM is 3-0 ATS as a dog in bowls (4-1 as a dog TY) while KU has covered its only
bowl as a fav (‘05). Vs bowl tms UM went 3-4 SU (4-3 ATS) despite being outgained 383-337. KU was
2-5 SU, 4-3 ATS also being outgained (478-420). UM played its final gm in the HHH Metrodome but
has gone 3-1 ATS on grass (KU 3-1 also). The Gophers are a young team with just 3 seniors starting
regularly among 15 upperclassmen & the Jayhawks have 8 senior starters (14 upperclassmen).
Despite a 4 game losing streak, the Gophers’ 7 wins marked the biggest 1 year improvement in
program history after a 1-11 disaster in ‘07. UM’s offense ranks #81 as they regularly start 5 frosh
including 3 on the OL. The headliners are soph QB Weber and 1st TM Big Ten WR Decker who led the
conference in rec’s despite totaling just 3 in the L/3 due to an ankle injury. The team lost RB Bennett
(ACL in the 2nd game) and had to go with true frosh Eskridge and Salamon. The OL started 9 different
lineups due to injuries and inexperience. The Gophers finished last in the league in rushing offense
which Brewster called “unacceptable” and he fired OL coach Phil Meyer after the season-ending 55-0
loss to Iowa. His replacement is ex-USC OL coach Tim Davis and Brewster said the team will use more
2 TE and 2 RB sets in the bowl. UM had the NCAA’s worst defense in ‘07 and Brewster upgraded the
unit athletically by signing several JC’s and moving players. UM led the Big Ten with 30 TO’s forced (#8
NCAA) while trimming its ypg allowed from 519 to 378 (#65 overall D). DE VanDeSteeg returned to
All-Big Ten form with a team leading 9.5 sks. Ex-DE Campbell led the team in tackles at MLB and JC
S Simmons led the conf with 17 passes defended. The ST’s are #42 in our rankings with PR Sherels
finishing #2 in the conf with a 12.4 avg.
KU has our #25 off avg 33 ppg & 431 ypg which is down 10 ppg & 49 ypg from its Orange Bowl ssn
LY. Two main reasons for the decline were the tm’s lack of health & the upgrade in the schedule (OU,
TT & UT pulled from the B12 S, avoided all in ‘07). KU returned 6 starters from LY, but lost its top RB,
WR & arguably the ‘07 nation’s best secondary player (Talib). QB Reesing’s numbers, as expected,
were down, but he did finish #21 in the NCAA in pass eff (145.8). Reesing was also overshadowed
due to the B12’s QB play, but only avg 251 ypg (56%) with 5 (42%) of his int vs the B12 S. WR Meier
provides a very reliable target as 66 (76%) of his rec resulted in FD’s (18 FD rec on 3rd/4th down). He
is the bkup QB who spends the majority of his time with them in practice. 2nd Tm B12 WR Briscoe had
six 100+ yd performances (3 straight). The running gm (#9 in B12 down 68 ypg from LY) suffered at
times with inj’s & playing catchup, but when healthy Sharp is a solid option. The OL avg 6’4” 308 (3 Sr
starters) paving the way for 129 ypg (3.7) while all’g 28 sks (6.0%). The def returned 9 starters from
the ‘07 squad, but the 30 ppg & 402 ypg allowed are the worst S/’03 (Mangino’s 2nd yr). They have
our #59 ranking & have gotten to opposing QB’s 26 times (5.3%). The DL avg 6’4” 271 (1 Sr). The LB
unit (3 Sr starters all back from ‘07) has been banged up all ssn. The secondary has had a problem
with inj’s also as KU moved former WR Patterson over to start at CB. KU has our #40 pass eff def
allowing 276 ypg (61%) with a 26-15 ratio. KU has our #95 ST unit & struggles in PR coverage (10.9
#86 in NCAA) while the net punting (33.0) is ranked #95. KU is #118 (17.4) in the NCAA in KR’s.
While it’s tough to back a Gopher squad that limps into this bowl with 4 straight losses, incl a 55-0
shutout, KU has ridden the coattails of last season’s overrated run and has been an AF once this year
almost losing as an 11 pt fav. Minny HC Brewster is changing some offensive schemes after firing his OL
coach after the Iowa loss which puts Kansas in a position of not knowing what to expect. The teams are
closer than this large line, and we’ll take the generous pts vs an unmotivated Jawhawks squad.
FORECAST: MINNESOTA (+) THE PTS KANSAS BY 7
RATING: 1* MINNESOTA
CHICK-fil-A BOWL
The ACC and SEC are tied 8-8 in the Chick-fil-A Bowl and 10 of those gms have been decided by a TD
or less. Their last meeting was the 2000 Peach Bowl when LSU upset #15 GT 28-14 (+8’), but GT is 12-6 SU
all-time in this series. GT is 0-3 all-time in this bowl while LSU is 4-0 and in ‘05 they blasted #9 Miami 40-3
(+7). In his 1st yr as HC, Paul Johnson was named the ACC COY with 9 wins (most ever by a GT HC) and
GT upset in-state rival UGA for the 1st time in 8 yrs. Johnson is 2-2 SU (3-1 ATS) in bowls. Miles is 4-2 SU
(3-2-1 ATS) in bowls but has won and covered all 3 at LSU. LSU has been to a schl rec’d 9 consec bowls.
This is GT’s 12 str bowl and they are 22-14 all-time but have lost 3 str (1-2 ATS). Five of GT’s L/7 bowls have
been out West but now they get to play in the Georgia Dome which is just 2 miles from Dodd Stadium. LSU
is also familiar with this site as they’ve plyd here 6x’s S/‘00. GT is 2-4 SU & ATS as a bowl fav while LSU has
pulled 2 str upsets as a bowl dog. Both tms faced Miss St & UGA TY and GT was 2-0 SU & ATS winning by
an avg of 42-23 while LSU was 1-1 (0-2 ATS) and outscored 38-36. Fifteen of GT’s 22 starters will likely be
frosh or soph’s. On off there are no Sr starters & just 4 on D. LSU has 9 Sr starters and 18 upperclassmen
starters. GT faced 7 bowl tms TY and went 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS. LSU faced 6 and went 2-4 SU (1-5 ATS) being
outscored by an avg of 26-35. This gm is officially a sell-out with GT selling their 17,500 allotment and LSU
exp to sell theirs, but the crowd will likely be pro-GT. ACC teams are 6-4 SU/5-5 ATS TY vs SEC teams.
LSU becomes the 1st BCS defending champ to play in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, and has clinched the worst
record by a defending BCS Champ at 7-5 (prior worst FL 9-4 in ‘07). Problems began in spg when QB Perrilloux
was dismissed leaving OC Crowton with Harvard transfer Hatch, rFr Lee and true frosh Jefferson (expected to
RS). Hatch st’d the 1st 3 then gave way to Lee and suffered a leg inj which caused him to miss the L/5. Lee st’d
the next 8 but struggled throwing 7 int ret’d for TD’s and then was inj’d vs Ole Miss leaving Jefferson (27 career
atts) the starter for the finale vs Ark. Miles said Jefferson will start the bowl but expects Hatch and Lee to play.
RB Scott was banged up at the end of the yr but still made 1st Tm SEC and should be healthy for the bowl. WR
LaFell was #2 in the SEC in rec pg, #3 in rec ypg. The OL starters avg 6’4” 316 led by 1st Tm SEC OG Johnson
(6’7” 375). LSU is #26 on off and #29 on def in our rankings. DC Pelini left LY to become HC of Neb and was
replaced by co-DC’s, Peveto & Mallory. LSU went from one of the top D’s in the country to 2nd last in the SEC
in scoring def and last in the SEC in pass D (#36 in our pass eff D rankings). Though there may be a coaching
change in the offseason, they will keep the staff intact for the bowl. Luckily the def will have 3 wks to prepare
for GT’s option which LSU defenders said they haven’t seen since HS. The DL avg 6’4” 287 with 3 Sr starters.
MLB Beckwith missed 2 full gms and wasn’t 100% and the secondary is inexperienced with 5 frosh & sophs
in the 2 deep. LSU is #19 in our sp tms rankings led by 1st Tm SEC K David who has rewritten LSU’s record
book. RS Holliday qualified for the Olympic trials (in 100M) and the team had a net of 37.2.
ACC POY Dwyer is the feature RB in Johnson’s spread-option off. He is the 2nd GT player in the L/3Y
to receive the honor (Calvin Johnson ‘06). Dwyer leads the ACC in rush yds and has rushed for 100 yds
9x’s TY to tie a GT record. WR Thomas is #5 in the ACC in rec ypg. GT’s OL avg 6’4” 290 with 0 Sr starters.
LT Gardner elected to have shldr surg in Nov and was lost for the yr but was still selected 1st Tm ACC and
RT Brown was lost with a spinal inj. The OL in led by LG Howard (2nd Tm ACC). GT is #3 in the NCAA avg
282 rush ypg (5.6) and all’d 18 sks (12.9%). GT has avg 402 ypg L/3 despite losing the 2 OL starters. GT
has our #42 off and #37 def. Tech has one of the top DL in the country that avg 6’4” 278 with 3 Sr starters
led by AA DE Johnson, 1st Tm ACC DT Walker, 2nd Tm ACC DT Richard and HM ACC DE Morgan (So).
The DL allows 3.5 ypc and tallied 24.5 of the tm’s 32 sks. The LB corps has been banged up TY but could
be healthy here. GT is #54 in the pass eff D all’g 196 ypg pass & is #9 in the NCAA with 18 int. The secondary
is led by 2nd Tm ACC S Burnett who is tied #1 in the NCAA for int. GT’s sp tms struggled TY (#91 our
rankings). GT is avg 19.4 ypr on KR’s and just 6.8 on PR’s. They allow 19.8 on KR’s and 8.5 on PR’s. GT
K Scott Blair ranks last in the ACC among bowl teams in FG’s and GT’s net punt avg is just 34.0.
Many doubted Johnson could bring his option offense to a BCS school and succeed and he proved them
wrong. GT has a shot at 10 wins for the 1st time S/‘98. LSU has lost 6 str ATS and lost the L2 reg ssn gms
for the 1st time S/’81. Those are the exact reasons we’ll side with LSU. It’s time to motivate quality players to
play to their potential and a fresh start to next year. LSU’s D is loaded with NFL caliber players and given extra
prep time the option will be containable. Expect LSU to show their pride after being instilled as a 4 pt dog.
FORECAST: LSU BY 7
RATING: 4* LSU
OUTBACK BOWL
This is the first meeting between these schools but Tampa is a familiar destination for both. Iowa
has been here twice upsetting Zook’s Florida Gators 37-17 (+3’) in ‘03 but losing to Meyer’s 1st Gators
squad, 31-24 (E) in ‘05. SC is 2-0 SU & ATS here beating Ohio St in B2B matchups under Lou Holtz in
‘00 & ‘01. Ferentz is 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in bowls (2-1 SU & ATS vs SEC) but this is the 1st time his team is
favored. Spurrier is 7-7 SU & ATS in bowls (1-1 at SC) and 1-2 SU & ATS as a bowl dog. Iowa is 5-3 ATS
as a fav & SC is 1-3-1 as a dog TY. UI was 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS vs bowl teams with the 3 losses (all vs tms
with 9 wins) by a combined 9 pts. The Hawks outscored bowl foes 28-16 and outgained them 368-293.
SC was 3-5 vs bowl tms (3-4-1 ATS) being outscored 24-19 with the ydg surprisingly even. Iowa got this
bowl bid over a 9 win Northwestern team that it lost to based on their reputation as travellers and their
fans should be eager to snap up tickets after sitting home LY. SC also sat home in ‘07 at 6-6 and have
sold their allotments to previous bowls giving them this bid over LSU. Iowa has 6 senior starters among
11 upperclassmen and SC has 7 senior starters and 15 upperclassmen in starting roles.
The Hawkeyes finished the spring with a walk-on as the starting TB and QB Christensen in his 2nd
season as a starter. Over the summer bruising TB Shonn Greene returned to the program and the Hawks
wisely built their #41 offense around him. The results were spectacular as Greene set a school record in
rush yards, earning the Big Ten’s Offensive POY as the NCAA’s only RB to run for at least 100 yds in all
12 games. Greene’s presence allowed the staff to bench Christensen for the more mobile Ricky Stanzi.
Stanzi’s level of play picked up as the season progressed as he led the Hawks to their 4Q comeback
over undefeated Penn St. His top targets are WR’s Derrell Johnson-Koulianos (7 rec vs the Lions) and
1st Tm All Big Ten TE Brandon Myers. The OL was greatly improved as they cut their sacks allowed from
46 in ‘07 to 26 (8.6%). Iowa is #10 in our defensive rankings. UI has the NCAA’s most experienced DT
tandem in Matt Kroul and Big Ten DL of the Year Mitch King. With them clogging the middle the Hawks
are #10 in the NCAA in rush defense (98.3, 3.1). The LB’s are active with 2nd Tm Big Ten honoree Pat
Angerer actually leading the league in int’s. The secondary is #8 in our pass eff D allowing 191 ypg (56%)
with an 8-20 ratio. Iowa has our #30 ST’s unit led by P Ryan Donahue.
Spurrier is notoriously hard on QBs and TY was no exception but the QB position was just one of
many disappointing parts of SC’s #73 offense. Beecher started the opener but threw 4 int and was later
inj’d playing just 1 more gm all yr. Smelley (6 sts ‘07) std the next 6, until Garcia led SC to 10 pts in the
4Q vs KY to pull out a 24-17 win, earning the start at LSU. Garcia st’d the next 2 until a knee inj vs Tenn
gave Smelley another chance. Smelley st’d the L/3 with both QBs alternating on every other snap vs
Ark and then both playing in their blowout loss to FL. Smelley played the whole gm in a losing effort vs
Clemson and Spurrier said that Garcia would start the bowl. QB cch Reaves left SC after the reg ssn.
RB Davis led the tm in rushing, but SC ranks last in the SEC (#108 NCAA) in rush off (98 ypg, 2.9). WR
McKinley led the tm in recs & rec yds despite missing 3 gms with an inj and surpassed Sterling Sharpe
as SC’s all-time leading rec and rec ydg leader. TE Cook has 4.37 spd and was named 1st Tm SEC. The
OL was once again a weakness with the lineup shuffled often to try to increase production. The starters
avg 6’5” 301 with 2 seniors but allowed 38 sks (9.5%, 2nd worst in SEC) and OL coach Hunt was let go
after the reg ssn. SC’s #11 defense made huge strides under new DC Ellis Johnson TY improving their
rush ypg allowed from 209 (4.8) in ‘07 to 129 ypg (3.6) TY. LB Norwood earned 1st Tm SEC leading the
tm with 13 tfl and SS Emanuel Cook is 2nd Tm SEC leading the tm in tkls for the 2nd straight yr. SC is
#26 in our pass D rankings allowing 160 pass ypg (57%) with an 8-12 ratio. SC’s sp tms rank #56 with K
Succop missing 2 FGs vs Vandy and 4 vs UK (2 were 50+) but otherwise hitting 17 of 20 and had TBs
on 42% of his KOs. The return gm was avg and P Lanning’s net was just 34.3.
Iowa finished the season with 3 straight wins including the upset of Penn St to make it to this bowl.
South Carolina meanwhile dropped their last 2 (Clemson & Florida) by a combined score of 87-20. The
key to this game will be the QB that makes the fewest mistakes as both defenses rate in the Top 15. The
Iowa offense is reliant on AA RB Greene who had 100+ rush yds in all 12 games. We are calling for Iowa
to win by 3 vs Spurrier and a tough defense.
FORECAST: IOWA BY 3
RATING: No Play
GATOR BOWL
1st meeting between the schools since the ‘81 Orange Bowl when CU beat NU 22-15 (+4) to win the
National Title (12-0 ssn). This will be CU’s 9th appearance in the Gator (4-4, more than any other school,
but 1st S/’00) & 31st overall (15-15). NU will be playing in their 45th bowl (22-22), but 1st here. CU finished
strong under new HC Swinney (4 wins in L/5), who replaced Bowden after he resigned. This is his first bowl
as a HC while its NU’s Pelini’s 2nd bowl as a HC, as he was in the interim in the ‘03 Alamo Bowl (won 17-3
over MSU, -3). CU plays all of its HG’s on grass while NU plays on turf (3-5 SU & 3-4-1 ATS on grass L/3Y).
Tigers have 7 Sr starters & 15 upperclassmen while the Huskers have 11 & 16. CU is 4-6 SU & 3-6 ATS at
a neutral site and has been a road fav just once TY (defeat UVA 13-3, -2’). NU has dropped both gms as
an AD (1-1 ATS). NU faced the tougher schedule (#33-49). CU faced 8 bowl caliber teams and was 3-5 SU
& 2-6 ATS, getting outgained 325-309. NU was 3-4 SU/ATS (-4 ppg & -5 ypg). CU traditionally travels well
& NU will do the same after sitting out LY during the holidays.
CU’s offense is led by RB’s James Davis and CJ Spiller (2nd Tm ACC RB), QB Cullen Harper and
WR Aaron Kelly (2nd Tm ACC). Davis needs just 112 rushing yds and 2 TD’s to become CU’s career
leader in both categories. He currently has 49 TD’s after a 3 TD performance vs SC in the reg ssn finale.
Spiller leads the ACC in all-purp yds and needs just 114 more to become CU’s career leader. Harper
ranked third in the ACC in pass eff completing 63.2%. Kelly is the ACC’s career leader in rec’s with 226
and needs just 23 receiving yds to become CU’s all-time leader. The O-line avg 6’4” 313 but has been
banged up most of the season and is avg just 3.6 ypc rush and 29 sks (#92 NCAA). In fact, Bobby
Hutchinson, who was not exp to play TY and just serve as a student coach, was reinstated because of
all the inj’s. Thomas Austin, however, has been solid playing C & OG and earned 2nd Tm ACC honors.
The Tigers have our #52 offense and #17 defense. Clemson’s DL also struggled at times this year all’g
3.8 ypc rush D and the team is ranked #106 in the NCAA with just 14 sacks (9 by DL). The Tigers did
lose DE Ricky Sapp for the year with a partially torn ACL vs UVA. CU, however, is #17 in the NCAA in
total D and #10th in pass D. The LB corps is led by Jr Kavell Connor (#1 tkls) and rFr Brandon Maye,
who was 2nd in the voting for ACC Def Rookie of the Year. The leader of the defense is 1st Tm ACC S
Michael Hamlin who has 18 career takeaways (int & FR) and needs just 1 more to become CU’s all-time
leader. CU has our #59 Sp Tms. Spiller was named 1st Tm ACC as a specialist and ranks #10 in the
NCAA in KR’s. CU avg’s 22.2 ypr on KR and 7.5 on PR and allows 20.2 on KR and 9.2 on PR.
NU has our #13 off avg 36 ppg (28+ in 11 gms) & 458 ypg (400+ in 9 gms). The numbers mirror LY’s
non-bowl squad proving that keeping OC Watson was a smart move. NU ret’d just 5 starters from LY, but
the entire RB corps was back & due to QB inj’s Ganz started the final 3 (466 ypg, 15-7 ratio). He picked up
were he left off, but with a new staff NU decided to keep the ball on the ground more (+30 ypg from ‘07).
RB Lucky sat out the ssn finale but Helu (1st career start) ran for a NU ssn high 166 yds & has 3 of the
Huskers’ 100 yd efforts (all in L/4 gms). WR Swift is just the 2nd NU player ever to top 900+ rec yds & with
Peterson makes up the B12’s most underrated WR tandem. The OL avg 6’5” 303 (2 Sr starters) paving the
way for 174 ypg (4.6) allowing 21 sks (5.3%). The OL will be the healthiest it’s been all ssn for the bowl.
The def returned 6 starters from a ‘07 squad that allowed 38 ppg & 477 ypg (worst in school history!). They
improved drastically TY allowing 29 ppg, just 362 ypg & have tallied 30 sks (T-#3 B12) to rank #51. The DL
avg 6’5” 281 (2 Sr starters), allowing 126 ypg (3.9) & have accounted for 80% of the sks. The DL leader is
2nd Tm B12 Suh (led B12 in tkls among DL). LB Glenn may miss the bowl (susp, CS), but Dillard should
be 100% anchoring the unit. NU has our #45 pass eff def allowing 236 ypg (59%) with a 17-10 ratio. The
ST’s rank #64. K Henery’s 57 yd gm winning FG over CU was the longest in Husker history.
HC Swinney certainly earned his new head coaching position by rallying the Tigers to a 4-1 SU/ATS
finish. The defense did their job by all’g a total of 24 pts the L3 games albeit vs the offenses of Duke, Virg
and S Carolina. The games in which Spiller and Davis were shut down were ugly as they scored 17 or
less in those 4 losses. The Huskers played up to their potential as they handled each of the opponents
they should have while all 4 losses were to current Top 20 teams. We like the matchup as Clemson has
yet to face a true passing offense while the Huskers bring a balanced rush/pass attack.
FORECAST: NEBRASKA BY 7
RATING: 3*
CAPITAL ONE BOWL
The only meeting between these 2 teams was a 34-27 win (line Even) by UGA in the 1989 Gator
Bowl. UGA is 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS) vs Big Ten tms in bowls S/‘88 (7-2 all-time SU). MSU has only played
3 SEC tms S/’47 and all were in bowls (1-2 SU & ATS). Richt is 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in bowls and LY
smoked undefeated #10 Hawaii 41-10 in the Sugar Bowl (-7’). Dantonio is 1-1 SU in bowls and 2-0
ATS losing SU but covering vs Matt Ryan’s BC team LY in the Champs Sports Bowl which is played
in the same stadium. MSU brought 25,000 fans to that contest which secured their bid for this bowl.
The Bulldogs own the SEC’s last win in the Capital One Bowl, a 34-27 OT win over Purdue following
the ‘03 ssn & UGA has won & covered their L/2 in this bowl. MSU won their only previous appearance
in this bowl, 37-34 (+2’) over Florida in ‘99 after Nick Saban left for LSU. That was the last time MSU
won 10 games, which has happened just twice in school history. UGA is on an 0-6 run as a favorite
including suffering an outright upset to GT in their home finale. The Spartans were 0-3 ATS as a dog
TY losing by an avg of 25 ppg to Cal, OSU & PSU. UGA has played 8 bowl teams with a 5-3 SU record
(2-5-1 ATS) and only outscored those tms by an avg of 34-31 but outgained bowl tms by an avg of
425-351. MSU is also 5-3 SU and 2-5-1 ATS vs bowl squads getting outscored 25-22 and outgained
350-347. UGA has only 5 seniors in the starting lineup and 10 upperclassmen. The Spartans have 7
seniors among their 14 upperclassmen starters.
MSU’s #44 offense rode its durable workhorse Javon Ringer. After sharing the load in ‘07, Doak Walker
finalist Ringer led the NCAA with 370 carries, 344 carries more than the team’s #2 rusher. The emphasis
on the ground game took the pressure off senior QB Brian Hoyer and a young receiving corps. Hoyer
struggled in LY’s bowl with 5 TO’s including 4 int. He finished with the 2nd lowest completion % among
BCS starting QB’s. His play did pick up down the stretch thanks to the emergence of WR Blair White
who had 20 rec for 427 yds in the L/4. The big OL (6’5” 312 avg) paved the way for Ringer’s success
and also allowed just 18 sks (5.0%). The Spartans have our #34 stop unit. MSU’s DL is led by DE Trevor
Anderson’s 8 sks. 1st Tm Big Ten sophomore Greg Jones led the LB corps. The secondary ranks #29
in our pass efficiency led by All-Big Ten SS Otis Wiley. They will now face a potential #1 DC at QB for
the 2nd bowl in a row as they held BC QB Ryan to 22-47 for 249 yds with a 3-3 ratio in his final college
game. The ST’s are #55 with K Swenson setting a school record by hitting 15 straight FG’s.
UGA started the season #1 but injuries really took a toll on this team. UGA QB Stafford leads the
SEC in passing averaging 267 ypg for our #11 offense. Highlight-reel RB Moreno is also the SEC leader
in rush ypg (111.5) and a Doak Walker finalist. UGA also boasts the SEC’s top 2 leaders in rec ypg,
true frosh WR Green (79.3) and senior WR Massaquoi (75.8) who finally fulfilled his massive potential
this year. The only purported weakness on offense lies in the OL which has been banged up all year
and lost 3 players (including 2 starters) to season ending injuries. Despite that, UGA averaged 154
rush ypg (4.7) and the OL only allowed 15 sks (#2 in SEC) in 369 pass atts (4.1%). The starting OL
consists of 3 frosh and 2 sophs and they average 6’5” 298. The Bulldogs #31 D also had significant
inj’s in ‘08 with future NFL DT Owens lost for the year in the opener and starting DE Battle and MLB
Ellerbe missing significant PT with inj’s. UGA ranked last in the SEC in sks (18) and struggled against
the run at the end of the yr allowing 226 (5.0) in the L/5 including 409 vs GT. With those inj’s, soph LB
Rennie Curran became the standout leading the tm in tkls (109) and tfl (9). UGA’s secondary finished
#63 in our pass D rankings allowing 188 ypg (56%) with a 17-10 ratio. UGA’s #20 ST unit is led by P
Mimbs with a super 37.6 net. True frosh K Walsh started out strong, but missed 6 of his L/10 FG’s.
Georgia could not live up to the early hype after being picked #1 in the summer. Attrition took its
toll as they struggled against the SEC leaders. While they finished the season on an 0-6 ATS run
as favorites, they have now rallied behind HC Richt’s cries to make this the 1st game towards next
season. Michigan St has nice numbers this season but check out what they’ve done against teams
with winning records. They’ve gone 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS vs Cal, Iowa, OSU, Wisky and Penn St. This
game will show just how much difference you can have between a pair of 9-3 squads.
FORECAST: GEORGIA BY 14
RATING: 2* GEORGIA
ROSE BOWL
Under Paterno the Lions are 4-3 SU & ATS vs the Trojans with the last contest coming in the 2000 Kickoff
Classic, a 29-5 USC (+2) win. The Trojans won the lone previous Rose Bowl matchup, 14-3 in ‘23. USC now
makes its record 7th straight BCS appearance and 34th Rose Bowl bid overall (23-10 SU). Carroll is 5-2
SU & ATS in bowls including 2-1 SU/ATS in the Grandaddy of Them All. Paterno is an NCAA best 23-10-1
SU & 21-9-1 ATS in bowls with this being just his 2nd trip to Pasadena. The Lions (-17) won the 1994 Rose
Bowl over Oregon, 38-20 which capped an undefeated season. The teams each played the Big Ten and P10
runnerups. PSU finished 2-0 SU & ATS winning by an avg of 29-10 and outgaining them 368-315. USC was
1-1 SU & ATS (329-276 yd edge) with their Sept 25th upset loss at Oreg St costing them a trip to the title
game. Under Carroll USC is 5-0 SU/ATS vs the Big Ten outscoring them by 22.6 ppg. USC is 5-1 SU/3-3
ATS vs bowl tms TY outgaining them 414-206 while PSU is 4-1 SU & ATS outgaining bowl foes 392-307.
USC is 5-1 SU but 2-4 ATS on the road TY while PSU is 4-1 SU & ATS. The Trojans have 10 senior starters
(8 on D) among 17 upperclassmen while the Lions have 12 seniors and 17 upperclassmen. USC is 11-17-1
ATS as a DD fav while PSU has been a DD dog just once S/’04 (28-6 loss at OSU, +17).
Paterno vowed that the Lions would be back in the national title hunt again in ‘08. The Lions moved to the
Spread HD to best utilize athletic QB Daryll Clark. In the Lions’ 1st 6 gms Clark led the league in pass eff and
threw just 1 int. He suffered a concussion vs Ohio St but backup Pat Devlin led the Lions to the big win. Clark
struggled hitting 9-23 for 86 yds in the loss to Iowa in which they blew a 2H lead and their chance at the title
game. He ended the season hitting 16-26 for 341 yds & 4 TD’s vs MSU. Devlin opted to trans foll the season.
Clark’s top target was Deon Butler who broke Bobby Engram’s school receptions record. Evan Royster and
speedy Stephfon Green led the run game. The OL had 3 members named 1st Tm All-Big Ten led by AA C
AQ Shipley. They paved the way for a 5.3 ypg and allowed just 12 sks (3.5%). Despite suffering some major
personnel losses (2 DT’s kicked off in Aug & top LB Lee tore his ACL) the Lions still have our #7 defense. DE
Maurice Evans (12.5 sk in ‘07) was suspended early on and ended up losing his job to Aaron Maybin who
finished #4 in the NCAA with 12 sk. Navarro Bowman (1st Tm All-Big Ten) emerged as the leading tackler.
The secondary is #15 in pass eff allowing 168 ypg (54%) with a 6-16 ratio (2nd fewest TD passes allowed in
country to USC’s 4). The Lions are always strong on ST’s with our #7 ranking led by return specialist Derrick
Williams (3 combined ret TD’s in ‘08) and the Big Ten’s all-time leading scorer K Kevin Kelly.
QB Sanchez showed his toughness throughout 2008 starting all 12 gms despite dealing with a bad knee for
the 1H of the yr. He led the P10 with an outstanding pass eff mark of 159.1 earning 1st Tm All-Conf in his 1st
full yr as a starter. The Trojans run game was a 3-headed monster in ‘08 as Gable, McKnight & Johnson were all
given their share of the carries, to keep the opposition guessing. FB Havili also became a key part of the USC
off, especially in the blk’g & pass gm while earning praise wk in & wk out from Carroll. The WR position proved
to have the most depth TY as Turner had a steady year while Ark trans Williams stepped in as Sanchez’s #1
target on the year. The OL is loaded with young talent & size (6’5” 292) led by LG Jeff Byers who is the only Sr
starter up front. They paved the way for 206 ypg (5.3) while surrendering 17 sks (4.8%) on the ssn. Overall the
Trojan off finished with our #7 overall ranking on the ssn and will have newly named UW HC Sarkisian avail as
the OC here. USC finished with our #1 overall def as they dominated competition all’g just 206 ypg & 7.8 ppg
while giving up just 22 2H points the entire year! The DL avg 6’4” 271 all’g an NCAA best 83 ypg rush (2.6) led
by DT Moala & DE Matthews. The LB corps is arguably the best in the nation with Pac-10 DPOY Maualuga,
Cushing & Maiava. The secondary all’d 123 ypg (51.6%) with a 4-17 ratio ranking #1 in pass eff D. USC finished
with our #61 ST’s as K Buehler had hit 8 of 9 FG’s on the ssn prior to missing all 3 vs UCLA.
These 2 heavyweights both had National Championship aspirations throughout the season. Each also
faced the opposing conf’s runner-up as USC handled Ohio St and Penn St dominated Oregon St. The
Lions are excited to be here for their first Rose Bowl in 14 years while the Trojans were openly clamoring
to play a Big 12 or SEC opponent before they clinched their 4th straight Rose Bowl bid. USC has the high
profile players but this Penn State squad has not only won but dominated giving 5 teams their worst loss
of the season. USC meanwhile has struggled to score on the road against winning teams having been
shutout in the 1H at Oregon St 21-0 and only leading 10-3 at HT at Arizona. This doesn’t bode well for a
DD favorite against a Paterno team with unlimited prep time.
FORECAST: PENN ST (+) BY 3
RATING: 4* PENN ST
ORANGE BOWL
Orange Bowl’s 75th anniversary. The Bearcats & Hokies are the lowest-ranked BCS participants. This
will be the 9th meeting (4-4) between these 2 teams with Cincy going 5-2 ATS . They last met in ‘06 & UC
led 10-5 with a 164-106 yd edge 1H in the 29-13 (+27’) loss to #11 VT. This will be UC’s 3rd straight bowl
& 1st BCS appearance, they are 5-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in bowls. The Cats got their school record 11th win,
won its 1st BE Title & will play their first Jan 1st bowl game since the 1951 Sun Bowl. VT is making it’s
16th straight (5 BCS) postseason trip including it’s 2nd straight here under Beamer as he’s gone 6-9 SU &
ATS. VT will try to end their 4 gm losing streak in BCS gms (last win ‘95 Sugar Bowl) & will try to become
the 1st ACC team to win a BCS bowl S/#1 FSU won the National Title in the 2000 Sugar Bowl (#2 VT lost
46-29). This will be VT’s 3rd appearance in the Orange Bowl & they have gone 0-2 SU & ATS. With a win
here VT will have won 10 or more under Beamer in 8 of the L10Y. The Hokies have faced 8 bowl caliber
teams (BC 2X) going 5-4 SU & ATS, outscoring them 23-21 but were outgained 303-278. The Cats have
played 7 bowl caliber (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) teams being outscored 26-23 & outgained 350-332. Cincy is 3-5
SU & ATS on grass while VT plays it’s home games on it. Cincy is 9-3-1 ATS vs ranked teams the L3Y.
UC HC Kelly has won 3 Div II Champs at Grand Valley St, 1 MAC Title & is 2-0 (0-2 ATS) in bowls incl LY in
the Papajohns.com Bowl. In 2007, the Bearcats capped off the season with a 31-21 bowl win over S Miss giving
them 10 wins which equaled a school record & finished #17 in the AP Poll for the 1st time in school history.
The Cats took aim at the BE Title & BCS berth despite many forecasting them to finish in the lower half of the
BE standings. Kelly earned BE Coach of the Year honors. The ssn began with ‘07 QB Mauk denied a 6th year,
which left the Cats with ‘05-‘06 starter Dustin Grutza. He went down with broken leg vs OK which left UC with
Jr Tony Pike. Pike nearly left the program in the offseason due to lack of playing time. Pike took over but inj’d
his non-throwing arm & missed 2 games. In all, UC played 5 different QB’s. Pike returned & led Cincy to big
wins over WV, USF, UL & Pitt. He is avg 197 ypg (63%) with a 18-7 ratio. Cincy platooned Ramsey & Goebel
at RB and they combined for 1,211 (4.5) rush yds. The key to the offense is the WR corps, Goodman has 78
rec (12.5) and 7 TD’s & Gilyard 74 rec (15.1) & 10 TD’s. Goodman was inj’d in the finale (CS). The OL avg 6’4”
303 yds paving the way for 121 ypg (3.6) while all’g 30 sks (6.8%). The Cats have our #57 off & #21 def. UC
returned a veteran defense with 10 Sr starters back, most of whom played as Fr & Soph’s. The DL boasts 4 Sr’s
avg 6’3” 275 led by Byrd, Nelms & converted TE Barwin, who moved to DE, leads the BE in sacks. The LB corp
is led by 3 of the top 4 tklr’s in Manalac, Cornett & Smith. The secondary is loaded with talent in unanimous
All-BE CB Mickens who was inj’d for final 3 (CS), All-BE CB Smith & Ohio St transfer Underwood. UC has our
#33 pass eff def all’g 212 ypg (56%) with 18-16 ratio. UC has our #1 ST’s ranking led by AA Punter Huber’s
44.9 ypp & KR Gilyard who avg 28.0 ypr (#9 in NCAA) & earned BE ST’s POY honors.
VT has won 3 ACC Titles in their 5 years in the conf. QB Taylor was virtually flawless in wins over UVA
& BC in the ACC champ game. Taylor started the year thinking he was going to be redshirted & Glennon
was going to be the starter but after #17 VT while being upset by unranked EC 27-22, Taylor was inserted
into the starting role but he does split time w/Glennon. RFr RB Evans has the 10th-highest rushing total in
VT history. WR Coale is the only frosh on the team to start every game TY & is #1 in rec’s. The O-line avg
6’4” 310 paving the way for 3.7 ypc rush but surprisingly gave up 39 sks (14.6%). The OL is anchored by
2nd Tm ACC OG Render, HM ACC OG Marshman & HM ACC C Shuman. The Hokies have our #75 offense
& #18 defense. VT’s D-line avg 6’2” 274 & is led by 2nd Tm ACC DE’s Martin & Worilds. Worilds has 5.5
sks, 10 tfl & 2 FF in the L/5 gms & has done all that despite a separated left shoulder. VT ranks #19 in the
NCAA in rush D. Since 1999, the Hokies are 89-8 when outrushing their opp & 9-20 when outrushed. The
LB’s are the top 3 tklr’s on the team. The Hokies have our #39 pass D all’g 170 ypg & have 16 int. VT has
a dangerous secondary as Harris (1st Tm ACC) is one of the best CB’s in the nation (2 IR TD’s) & Virgil is
underrated. VT has our #86 spec tms. K Dustin Keys has been solid & earned HM ACC honors. VT is avg
20.9 on KR’s & 9.3 on PR’s while all’g 19.1 on KR’s & 12.7 on PR’s.
Cincinnati finished the season with 6 straight wins earning them the Big East Title & an Orange Bowl
berth. This is not only their 1st BCS game but their 1st traditional NY’s Day bowl. VT has lost 4 straight BCS
bowls which keeps them hungry & also unfazed by the pageantry surrounding this game. This is a situation
where one team will clearly come to play while being a learning experience for the other.
FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH BY 7
RATING: 2*
COTTON BOWL
This will be the 5th all-time meeting between these schools (2-2 SU & TT 2-1-1 ATS). Ole Miss is 2-0
SU & 1-0-1 ATS vs TT in bowl gms (‘86 & ‘98 Independence). Leach is 5-3 (3-5 ATS) in bowls guiding TT
to the postssn every yr at the helm (9th str). TT is 0-3 SU & 0-2 ATS in the Cotton Bowl. First yr HC Nutt
has Ole Miss playing in its 1st bowl S/‘03 when Eli Manning led the Rebels to a 31-28 win (-2’) over Okla
St in the Cotton. Nutt is 2-5 SU & 3-4 ATS in bowls (all at Ark), but 2-0 ATS in the Cotton (Ole Miss is 2-1
SU & 1-0 ATS all-time in the Cotton). TT has pulled the “Houdini” act the L2Y in bowls escaping 31 & 14
pt deficits & outscoring foes 41-7 in the 4Q. Red Raiders were 2-0 TY as a SD fav, but haven’t played
well to end the reg ssn (0-2 ATS) while the Rebels were 4-0 in the dog role incl an outright upset over #1
Florida (Gators only loss TY). Nutt is 15-8 ATS w/6 outright upsets over schools ranked in the Top 10 (2-0
ATS, 1-1 SU TY). Both tms play on turf, but TT is 0-4 ATS on grass & UM is 3-1 ATS. TT has faced 6 bowl
tms going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS outscoring foes by 10 ppg & outgaining them by 62 ypg. Ole Miss is 3-4 SU,
but 5-2 ATS (+2 ppg, +35 ypg) vs bowl tms. Both tms have no Fr starters with 17 upperclassman (77%),
but TT has 10 Sr starters to Ole Miss’ 7. TT will not have to leave the state (346 mile trip), but Ole Miss
(543 miles) will be well represented playing in just their 3rd NYD bowl S/’72 (TT’s 4th S/’57).
It has been a dream ssn for Ole Miss as new HC Nutt took the talent former HC Orgeron had stockpiled
and produced the tm’s 1st winning season S/’03 earning him co-SEC COY honors. QB Snead, who
incidentally is from Stephenville, TX (about 2 hrs from Dallas), transferred from Texas and sat out ‘07, so
he was learning his 3rd off system TY and came on strong down the stretch avg’g 201 pass ypg (57.5%)
with a 13-2 ratio in UM’s 5 gm win streak to end the ssn. As usual, Nutt has a strong stable of backs but
TY used speedy WR McCluster in the “Wild Rebel” formation (1100 total yds). WR’s Wallace and Hodge
rank #7 & #8 in the SEC in rec ypg with Wallace (20.1) having the highest ypc of any of the SEC’s top 10
rec’s. The OL avg 6’4” 327 led by 1st Tm AA Michael Oher who won the SEC’s Jacobs Blocking Trophy TY
and will be a top 5 draft pick in ‘09. UM has our #18 offense and #12 D. The DL avg 6’3” 273 led by 1st Tm
SEC DT Peria Jerry who led the SEC in tfl TY (17) and UM ranks #2 in the SEC in rush D allowing just
85 ypg (2.6) and #1 in the SEC in sks (35) despite top sackman DE Hardy (8.5) missing 5 gms with inj
(still 2nd Tm SEC). The LB corps is deep and was shuffled throughout the yr while the secondary is one
of the tm’s weak spots (still improved from #87 LY to #61 TY). The Rebels rank #46 in our sp tms rankings
(#74 LY) with a fake punt for a FD and blk’d xp being keys in their win over Florida. The returnmen and P
Park are solid and PK Shene earned 1st Tm SEC honors with his 3 misses from 47, 45 and 50 yds.
Texas Tech is known for its potent off (ranked #3) that scores at will as HC Leach (co-B12 COY) has that
kind of reputation. Under Leach TY TT featured its best all-around squad avg 45 ppg & 536 ypg. The big
diff from the past tms was the ability to run the ball & stop the run as the 119 ypg (4.7) was a Leach-era
high & the 134 ypg (3.9) all’d was a low. Unitas Award winner QB Harrell is having another outstanding
yr (ranks tops in many B12 off categories) & is TT’s all-time passing leader (15,399). He broke 2 fingers
on his non-throwing hand in the last gm vs BU, but will be fine for the bowl. What a difference a yr makes
as LY RB Woods was in the doghouse, but TY earned 2nd Tm B12 honors & forms a great RB duo w/
Batch. In fact when TT topped 100+ rush yds they were 10-0 (6-4 ATS) & 1-1 (0-2 ATS) when held below
that number. 1st Tm B12/2x Biletnikoff winner/Walter Camp semi-finalist WR Crabtree is the #1 target.
He has scored in 10 gms (83%), but has just four 100+ yd performances due to a ankle inj that should
be close to 100% by bowl time. The OL is massive averaging 6’6” 323 (3 Sr starters, 2 earned All-B12
honors), uses the biggest splits of any tm & has all’d just 11 sks (1.8%!). The D is ranked #38 in McNeill’s
1st full ssn as DC. The DL avg 6’4” 264 (1 Sr) tallying 26 (87%) of the 30 tm sks. They are led by 1st Tm
B12 DE Williams. The secondary features 1st Tm B12 S McBath (#6 NCAA w/6 int) & S Charbonnet. TT
ranks #37 in our pass eff def all’g 238 ypg (64%) with a 16-17 ratio (leads B12 in int). TT has the #90 ST
unit & doesn’t have a strong legged K, but walk-on Williams has filled in adequately.
Realistically UM could be 11-1 as their 4 losses were by an avg of 4.8 ppg. They lost to WF on a last second
FG after leading much of the gm, outgained Vandy 385-202 but had 6 TO’s, lost to 12-1 Bama by 4 and led
SC for much of the gm before falling by a TD. Ole Miss is ecstatic to be in the Cotton Bowl in QB Snead’s neck
of the woods while TT is disappointed as they were in the BCS hunt until being blown out by Okla.
FORECAST: MISSISSIPPI BY 4
RATING: 3*
LIBERTY BOWL
The Liberty Bowl’s 50th anniversary will mark the 2nd meeting between the schools with UK winning
the 1st, 6-3 in ‘93. CUSA Champ EC is making its 3rd trip (1-1 SU/ATS) to Memphis and comes here on a
3 gm win streak (2-1 ATS) while winning 6 of L/7 (3-4 ATS) despite being devastated by inj/susp. EC has
used 44 diff starters (23 on off, 21 on def) and 9 players from the preseason 2-deep have been lost for the
ssn. This is their 3 str bowl under HC Holtz (1-1 SU/ATS) incl LY’s 41-38 upset (+10’) of #24 Boise St in the
Hawaii Bowl. Holtz reportedly turned down the Syracuse job but remains a hot HC candidate. UK has a
chance to win 3 bowls in a row for the 1st time in school history (1-1 ATS). LY UK beat a susp-riddled Fla
St tm in the Music City Bowl 35-28 (-9). This is UK’s first trip to the Liberty and they are 7-5 all-time in bowls
(2-3 SU & ATS S/‘90). HC Brooks is 3-3 in bowls (1-5 ATS) and played in the Liberty Bowl in ‘62 as a Sr at
Oreg St. EC played 4 BCS schools TY going 2-2 SU/ATS, incl upsets of ACC Champ VT and WVU to open
the ssn which saw the Pirates ranked #14 in the polls. EC then lost to NCSt and VA and their BCS bubble
was burst. Overall, they played 6 bowl elig tms and went 3-3 SU/ATS, outscoring opps 23-22 despite being
outgained 353-332. UK played 5 bowl elig tms going 0-5 SU (2-3 ATS) while being outscored 35-19 and
outgained 414-267. In fact, UK didn’t beat a tm that finished with a winning record TY. The Cats finished
3-2 ATS as an AD while the Pirates were 0-5 ATS as an AF. EC features 14 upperclassmen starters, incl
6 Sr’s, while KY has 18 upperclassmen starters with 8 Sr’s. UK has had the crowd edge by far in each of
their L/2 bowls and they should have the fan edge here again with the game a reasonable drive away.
EC beat Tulsa 27-24 (+11’) to capture the CUSA Title, their 1st conf title S/’76 (Southern). The Pirates
held TU to a ssn-low 399 yds (avg 565) while forcing 7 TO’s. The D (#46) has been the strength all’g
just 20.8 ppg and forcing 32 TO’s (T-#4 NCAA). They are all’g 138 ypg (3.9) rush and the front 4 is led
by DE Wilson, who is tied for 6th in NCAA with 10.5 sks. The LB corps has battled inj’s, but Sr captain
Bell has been a mainstay and leads the tm in tkls. FS Eskridge leads a secondary that ranks #32 in
our pass eff D rankings all’g 197 ypg (60%) with a 17-21 ratio. The offense has struggled (#92) avg 24
ppg, while avg just 3.4 ypc (128 ypg). They are avg 208 yds pass as QB Pinkney became more of a
game manager as the year progressed. RB Whitley became the main ball carrier midssn, avg 71 ypg
(4.2) over the L/6. TE Drew is the leading active receiver as WR Harris was lost for ssn with a broken
foot. The Pirates have our #27 ST’s and while the P and the coverage units have been solid, K Hartman
has been inconsistent making just 19-29 FG’s with just 4-11 from 40+.
UK’s season has been inj-plagued with their #88 off losing their top rusher (Locke), top receiver
(Lyons-still finished as top receiver despite missing L/6) and 2 starting OL not to mention losing proj
starting QB Pulley before the season started (dismissed). LY UK’s offense led the tm to a bowl while
their D was a liability at times. TY the D kept UK in gms while the offense struggled. QB Hartline started
the 1st 8 games, but was benched for mobile true frosh QB Cobb. Cobb started the L/4 and the off was
much more productive with him in the lineup. He was inj’d in the ssn finale vs Tenn and the off produced
only 193 ttl yds. Cobb had a knee scope and is doubtful for the bowl. UK’s OL avg 6’4” 296 and is #1 in
the SEC in sks all’d (12, 3.1%). UK OC/QB coach Sanders is up for the UT Chattanooga HC job. UK’s
#43 D has also suffered inj’s with 4 starters missing significant gm action TY incl MLB Johnson who
missed 2 full gms and parts of others. Overall, their D has allowed 70 ypg less than ‘07 and 7.9 ppg
less and should be healthier for the bowl. UK is #42 in our pass D rankings allowing 185 ypg (53%) with
a 17-12 ratio led by 1st Tm CB Lindley (#2 in SEC in PD). UK ranks #22 in our ST, but their top 2 PR’s
are out (Lyons) or doubtful (Cobb) and their top KR is out (Locke). P Masthay leads the SEC in punt
avg (45.3) and teamed up with Tydlacka for a tm net of 38.4.
Though UK’s season has been disappointing, they are excited to be going to a different bowl TY
(Music City L2Y), and will be motivated about being dog vs a CUSA team. The last time UK was a
bowl dog, they upset Clemson 28-20 (+10’) in the ‘06 Music City Bowl. Both teams have numerous
inj’s especially in their WR corps, but UK still has the edge with their SEC depth. Downgrade this play
to a 1H if UK becomes the favorite.
FORECAST: KENTUCKY BY 4
RATING: 2* KENTUCKY
SUGAR BOWL
Bama leads the NCAA in bowl games (56) and bowl wins (31) with the Sugar Bowl being their most
frequent destination (8-4 SU) with the Tide clinching national titles here 4x’s incl their last trip, a 34-13 win
over Miami finishing a 13-0 ssn in ‘92. Bama is 3-4 SU (2-5 ATS) in bowls S/‘98, but Saban led the tm to
a 30-24 win (-3’) over Colo in LY’s Independence Bowl. Saban is 4-5 SU/ATS overall in bowls and 2-0 SU/
ATS in 2 Sugar Bowl appearances at LSU. This is Utah’s 6th consec bowl gm & they have won their L/7
while covering 5 of the L/6. Whittingham is 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) in bowls and has a close relationship with
Florida’s Meyer who just faced Bama in the SEC Champ gm. UT has 16 upperclassmen starters incl 9
Sr’s while UA has 18 upperclassmen incl 7 Sr’s in starting roles. UT is 0-6 vs SEC tms (SU) but has never
faced Bama. The Utes played 5 bowl eligible tms and went 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS), outscoring those foes 34-20
and outgaining them 404-346. Utah beat 3 ranked foes TY (TCU, BYU, Oreg St) plus Michigan and under
Whitt they’re 6-3 SU vs BCS tms (4-5 ATS). Bama faced 7 bowl elig tms going 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS outscoring
those tms by 10 ppg while outgaining them by 66 ypg. Bama went 7-3 as a fav TY (4-3 DD), but was 6-17
ATS as a fav the 3 yrs prior. UT pulled 2 outright upsets as a dog TY and is on a 5-1 streak as a dog overall.
The L/2 times Utah was a DD dog, they pulled outright upsets (L’ville 44-35, +14, UCLA 44-6, +16). Both
tms expect to sell out their ticket allotments (17,500) but this should certainly be a pro-Tide crowd.
Utah was a darkhorse in their own conference as all the talk during the offseason was about BYU. The
Utes won in Ann Arbor to open the yr, then later needed an 11 pt rally late vs Oreg St. They were caught
looking ahead vs NM (won by 3) then in a Thurs night showdown vs TCU got a TD pass w/:48 left for a
13-10 win. In the Holy War, UT forced 6 TO’s and won 48-24 to again bust the BCS (orig busters in ‘04) and
now has the nation’s longest win streak. The #24 off is led by the MWC Off POY QB Johnson who holds the
Utah record for career wins (passed Alex Smith) and has won 19 of 20 since ret’g from inj LY. RB’s Mack
and Asiata were splitting carries evenly until the TCU gm and both will get carries here. The OL avg 6’4”
306 with 2 Sr’s and the unit has started 97% of the gms together. They pave the way for 168 ypg (4.3) and
have all’d 23 sks (6.2%). Utah has our #23 D and DC Andersen will coach the bowl before leaving to be the
HC at Utah St. The DL avg 6’4” 258 with 1 Sr, all’g 105 ypg (3.3) and tallying 13 (62%) of the tm’s 21 sks.
The Utes rank #23 in our pass eff D all’g 192 ypg (55%) with a 14-17 ratio. AA Sakoda leads our #13 ST’s
unit. He is the most decorated ST’s performer in MWC history, and is #1 in the NCAA for active dual K & P
in career P and P yds. He broke UT’s 76 year old career pts scored rec’d and once made 56 str PAT. The KR
unit avg 23.0 ypr but they avg only 6.5 ypr on PR. UT gives up 21.4 ypr on KR and a solid 3.1 ypr on PR.
Saban took the Tide from a 7-6 record in his 1st yr to the SEC Champ gm and a 12-1 record in his 2nd
yr earning himself co-SEC COY honors. Bama spent 5 wks at #1 before succumbing to the mighty Gators,
but still earned a BCS bid with their strong ground game and top-notch D. UA’s #23 offense is managed by
QB Wilson who is avg 161 pass ypg after avg 219 pass ypg in ‘07. The ground gm finished #2 in the SEC
avg 197 ypg (4.8) led by 1st Tm SEC RB Coffee who had five 100+ yd rush gms TY. True frosh WR Jones
(PS#1) is 6’4” 210 and earned 2nd Tm SEC honors. The OL avg 6’5” 308 with 2 Sr starters and has only
all’d 17 sks (5.6%). LT Andre Smith won the Outland Trophy & is 1st Tm AA and should be a 1st RD DC
if he heads to the NFL next yr. The Tide’s D ranks #5, making huge strides over LY incl improving the ppg
all’d from 22 to 13 TY. UA held opps to 79 ypg rush (2.8) (#4 NCAA in rush D, #3 in total D). The DL avg
6’5” 310 led by 1st Tm AA Cody who dominates the line of scrimmage. LB McClain led the tm in tkls and
earned 1st Tm SEC honors. Bama ranks #10 in our pass D rankings all’g 178 ypg (51%) with a 15-15 ratio.
FS Johnson was 1st Tm SEC and led the league in PD (16) incl 3 int vs rival LSU (1 ret’d for TD, another
in OT). Bama is #57 in our ST rankings with exciting RS Arenas (2 PR TD’s, 2nd Tm SEC as RS & CB).
The def on returns has been mediocre (allow 9.2 on PR, 21.7 KR) and they only avg’d 34.6 net on punts.
K Tiffin has hit his L/6 FG’s but is just 3-7 from 40+.
Utah has had a much longer layoff as their last game was Nov 22nd while Bama played in the SEC Title
gm Dec 6th. The difference between the SEC and the MWC will be apparent in team speed and at the line of
scrimmage. Utah played 1 top-notch defense the entire season scoring only 13 pts vs TCU at home. Bama
battled through their SEC schedule, and beat their 4 non-conf opp’s on avg by 33-8, incl Clemson. The D held
9 opp’s to 14 pts or less and we expect this dominating unit to take the Utes out of their game plan.
FORECAST: ALABAMA BY 17
RATING: 2* ALABAMA
INTERNATIONAL BOWL
Conn is is 12-4 SU in this series and has covered the L/3 incl their last meeting in ‘05, a 38-0 (-18) win.
Buff is off a huge upset of #12 Ball St 42-24 (+15) in the MAC Champ gm. That gave the Bulls their 1st conf
championship ever & guaranteed them their first winning ssn since moving up to IA in ‘99. This is UB’s 1st
ever bowl gm. They did receive an invite to the ‘58 Tangerine Bowl but the players turned it down when they
learned that 2 black teammates would not be all’d to play. UB HC Turner Gill has turned this tm around in his
3 yrs and has been mentioned in reference to open coaching spots. UB played 6 bowl caliber tms and went
2-4 SU but 5-1 ATS. This is UC’s 2nd str bowl and 3rd in schl history. Edsall is 1-1 SU & ATS incl LY’s 24-10
loss to Wake. In the L/2 bowls Conn has developed a reputation as a school that travels well. UC captured
its 1st ever share of the BE Title in ‘07 & with a soft sked expectations were high entering ‘08 as the Huskies
returned 19 of its 24 sts. After a big win over #24 Cincy to go 6-2, Conn lost 3 of the L/4 and fell out of the
BE race. UC has played 6 bowl caliber tms (1-5 SU & ATS) being outscored 25-16 but outgaining those foes
322-276. The Huskies are 3-6 SU & 4-5 ATS on turf, while the Bulls play their HG on turf. Conn has 8 Sr among
13 upperclassmen sts, while Buffalo has 9 Sr’s among their 15 upperclassmen starters. Both tms played
Temple and Pitt with UB going 1-1 SU & ATS while UC went 1-1 SU but 0-2 ATS. The Bulls were outscored
by 4.5 ppg but outgained them by 28 ypg. UC was outscored by 11 ppg but outgained them by 78 ypg.
A huge factor in the Bulls’ 8 wins have been a +15 TO margin as they led the MAC with 20 fmbl rec’s.
UB scored 28 pts off 5 Ball St TO’s incl 2 long FR for TD. The Bulls have our #69 offense & are avg 31
ppg & 381 ypg. They are led by 4 yr starting QB Willy, who holds every major UB ssn & car pass records.
RB Starks had seven 100+ games TY despite missing 2 with inj. With 82 yds vs Ball St, he became UB’s
career leading rusher (3,115) despite just being a Jr & holds most of the Bulls single ssn & car records.
WR Roosevelt leads the MAC in rec’g yards & has seven 100+ yd rec games TY incl a current streak of
5 straight. He also holds most of the Bulls single ssn records. The Bulls’ OL started all 13 gms together &
avg 6’4” 308 with 3 Sr’s incl RG Niedermier (2nd Tm MAC). Buffalo has our #84 def all’g 28 ppg & 408 ypg.
While the Bulls have just 12 sacks, 10 were by the DL but they did allow 4.6 ypc. The DL avg 6’1” 276 &
has 3 Sr’s incl DE Thompson, who led the team with 9 tfl incl a team-best 3 sks. The Bulls 3 starting LB are
all underclassmen led by the tm’s top tklr OLB Winters (3rd Tm MAC). UB’s secondary all’d 250 ypg (66%)
& a 17-8 ratio but has 2 players with over 100 tkls in SS Shannon & FS Newton. The Bulls have our #113
ST’s and are avg just 18.1 ypr on KR & 13.0 ypr on PR. They have a net punt of just 32.2 & are all’g 22.2
ypr on KR & 8.6 ypr on PR & have all’d 4 blk’d kicks while blk’g 2.
Conn has our #62 offense avg 352 ypg & 24 ppg. After winning their 1st four, QB Lorenzen inj’d his leg
vs UL in the loss. RFr Frazer made his 1st start in an embarrassing loss to NC & left the Rutgers gm with
a concussion. Third string QB Endres started 2 gms before Lorenzen made a surprise start in the Syr win.
Edsall proclaimed Lorenzen the leader of the tm as he is 14-7 as starter. He is avg 103 ypg (48%) with a
2-8 ratio. Conn has relied on the legs of the NCAA’s #1 rusher Jr Donald Brown (BE Off POY) avg 152 ypg
(5.4) & 17 TD. FB Sherman 25 has rec (10.4). The offense has had little help from its WR’s & lost its top TE
Brouse after 5 games. The OL avg 6’6” 297 paving the way for 205 ypg (4.8), all’g just 13 sks. OT Beatty
raised his draft stock holding AA DE Selvie to just 1 tkl. The Husky defense ranks as our #19 unit all’g 282
ypg & 20 ppg. The DL avg 6’2” 258 with 3 Sr’s all’g 117 rush ypg (3.5) led by DE’s Williams & Brown who
has 10 sks. LB corp is led by two Soph that had breakout years as frosh in ‘07, in Lutrus & Wilson. The
secondary is led by All BE CB Butler who has 44 car starts but missed the L/3 with inj (CS) & FS Vaughn
with 9 int the L2Y. The surprise has been 1st year starter Soph CB Howard with 4 int & 8 pbu. Conn has
our #107 ST’s led by PR Howard avg 11.8 ypr with 1 TD. K Ciaravino struggled mid ssn & Teggert came in
relief hitting a 12-13. UC had 5 blk’d kicks incl 3 vs NC.
Buffalo is the surprise MAC champion after knocking off Ball St while Conn finished with 2 disappointing
losses but a closer look at each team’s final games show Conn outgained Pitt by 77 yds and lost by 24 pts while
Buff was outgained by 202 yds and won by 18. While the offenses are close Conn has a massive defensive
edge and will be able to slow the Buffalo offense. It may not be easy to back a team when they’re QB’s have
combined for a 4-17 ratio but there is clearly a talent difference here between the Big East and MAC team.
FORECAST: CONNECTICUT BY 14
RATING: 2*
FIESTA BOWL
The teams have met recently (‘05 & ‘06) with the road team winning both as QB Young led UT to a 25-22
(+1’) win which paved the way for a National Title. In ‘06 the #1 Bucks beat the #2 Horns in rFr McCoy’s 1st
start vs a BCS D (59% 154 yds 1-1 ratio). This is OSU’s 5th trip to AZ s/’02 (3-1 SU/ATS) and their 7th BCS
app (4-2 SU/3-3 ATS). UT has one Fiesta Bowl app in ‘96 (lost 38-15, -1 to PSU), but is 2-0 (both wins by a
combined 4 pts) in BCS gms. Tressel is 4-3 SU/ATS in bowls with lopsided losses in the L/2 BCS title gms.
After starting out his career 8-2 SU vs Top 10 tms (7-3 ATS), Tressel is now on a 0-4 SU/ATS run. Brown is
11-6 in bowls (8-9 ATS) & has guided the Horns to the postssn every yr at the helm (7-3 SU/4-6 ATS). OSU
went 0-2 ATS as a dog TY (vs Top 5 USC & PSU) & UT was 3-1 as an AF (3-0 as DD AF). OSU is 15-4 ATS
on the road including 4-1 TY with 5H LPS winners over Mich St & NW (‘08 GOY BLOWOUT!). OSU went
5-2 SU/3-4 ATS vs bowl teams outscoring those foes by an avg of 26-16 and outgaining them 331-296 & UT
was 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS (+21 ppg +105 ypg). OSU is 8-1 ATS on grass the L3Y (0-3 ATS in domes, roof maybe
closed) & UT has the turf advantage playing their HG’s on it (2-1 SU/1-2 ATS under Brown in domes). The
Bucks & Horns each have 9 senior starters and 15 upperclassmen in starting roles.
#3 OSU entered ‘08 with Tressel’s most experienced team yet with 19 returning starters incl 6th yr
QB Boeckman. OSU lost stud RB Chris Wells to a foot inj in the opener which sidelined him for 3 gms
(including USC) and D’s loaded the box. The result was the implosion at USC in which OSU actually had
the 1H ydg edge (177-172) but trailed 21-3 after having 2 TD’s called back and Boeckman’s late 2Q pick
six left them demoralized. Both QB’s played and afterward Tressel decided to go with the frosh. Pryor threw
4 TD passes in his 1st start and won his first 5. He scored the game winning TD at Wisky but also had
a costly fmbl on a QB sneak vs Penn St. Wells had seven 100 yd gms despite seldom being 100%. The
rec corps’ numbers shrunk due to the QB change. Ex-OSU coach Earl Bruce called the OL ‘underachievers’
as the line ret’d 3 Sr starters yet allowed 26 sks (10.7%!). OSU went to a more athletic C, true frosh
Brewster, and shuffled the line trying to find the best combo. The offense is #26 in our rankings. Defense
remained OSU’s strength (#3) led by AA’s LB Laurinaitis and CB *******. The DL play improved thanks
to the move of ex-LB Gibson to DE and a solid year by DT Abdallah. The Bucks finished #7 in pass eff D.
OSU’s numbers did fall in many categories from ‘07 (83-115 rush ypg, 43-24 sks) though they improved
in forcing TO’s from 19-28. The Bucks annually have one of the NCAA’s best ST’s and this year finished
#3 led by Big Ten leader PR Small.
Texas had one of its most dominating tms TY & played in what Brown called “the toughest stretch in
UT history” when they took on 4 tms ranked in the Top 11 eventually losing the last one on the gm’s final
play. Brown is the only active 1A HC to guide his tms to 9+ wins in 12 consec ssns. The Horns outscored
opp’s by 25 ppg & outgained them by 137 ypg. TY, UT’s #7 off ret’d 7 starters, but had to replace its top
RB & WR and QB McCoy was coming off a “soph slump”. McCoy reverted back to his Fr ssn earning 2nd
Tm All-B12 honors & was named Walter Camp POY and a Heisman finalist. He is #3 in the NCAA in pass
eff. The WR duo of 2nd Tm All-B12 Shipley & Cosby are solid weapons. The OL avg 6’5” 308 (1 Sr starter)
paving the way for 177 ypg (4.4) allowing 22 sks (5.7%). 2nd Tm All-B12 C Hall missed the final 2 reg ssn
gms, but should be back close to 100%. 1st Tm All-B12 OT Ulatoski anchors a solid unit. The #4 def ret’d
just 4 starters from LY but improved allowing 7 ppg & 31 ypg less than LY. UT has 44 sks (#1 NCAA) with
27 coming from the DL (61%). That unit avg 6’3” 271 (4 Sr) allowing just 74 ypg (2.8) which is #2 in the
NCAA. They are led by B12 Def POY Orakpo who won the Hendricks, Lombardi & Nagurski Awards. UT
is ranked #18 in our pass eff def allowing 266 ypg (57%) with a 18-6 ratio (82 PD leds B12). Longhorns
are ranked #12 on ST. 2nd Tm All-B12 K Lawrence has a strong leg & the tms 40.2 net punting ranks #4
in the NCAA. 2nd Tm All-B12 KR/PR Shipley has a TD ret on each. UT has a solid +5 kick block ratio.
Texas and QB McCoy are the chic pick here as their offense topped 28+ pts in every game and they
topped 42+ in 8 games. Ohio St does it in the trenches with RB Wells and the mobile QB Pryor but their D
has led them here as they’ve all’d 1 opp to top 21 pts and held 6 opp’s to 10 pts or less. When you match
a quality D against a quality offense, we will side with the Buckeyes stop unit that could have as many as
10 potential NFL’ers on it.
FORECAST: OHIO STATE (+) BY 3
RATING: 3* OHIO ST
GMAC BOWL
First meeting. Ball St HC Hoke and his staff visited TU in the offssn to discuss offensive philosophy, so
there shouldn’t be a lot of surprises here. BSU set a tm rec with 12 wins and Hoke was a member of the ‘78
Ball St tm that had the previous high (10). The Cards were 12-0 and ranked #12 with just 10 TO’s heading
into the MAC Champ gm but had 5 TO’s vs Buffalo incl 2 ret’d for TD’s and they suffered their 1st loss. This
is the Cards’ 5th bowl (0-4 SU, 1-2 ATS) and 2nd str under Hoke. They lost to Rutgers 52-30 (+10’) LY in
the International Bowl which was also played in Jan. Hoke was named Region 3 AFCA Cch of Yr and has
been mentioned in reference to some open HC spots along with Graham. Tulsa started the season 8-0
(6-2 ATS) and looked like a poss BCS buster, but lost B2B gms at Ark and UH and with their loss to EC in
the CUSA Title gm, have lost 3 of L/5 (1-4 ATS). TU is making its 4th str bowl appearance (2-1 SU/ATS)
and 2nd str trip to the GMAC Bowl under Graham. In LY’s gm TU thumped MAC foe BG 63-7 (-5), which
set an NCAA bowl rec for MOV. TU played 3 bowl caliber tms, going 1-2 SU/ATS being outscored 42-39 &
outgained 457-435. BSU played 5 bowl caliber tms going 4-1 SU/ATS outscoring them 36-25 and outgaining
them 476-360. Both are experienced as BSU has 14 upperclassmen sts, incl 9 Sr’s, while TU has 17
upperclassmen sts with 8 Sr’s. TU has struggled on the road TY going 2-4 ATS, but they have not been a
dog all ssn while BSU was 5-2 ATS away from home including 4-2 ATS as an AF.
Ball St has the MAC’s #1 off (our #30) avg 37 ppg and 459 ypg and set tm records in both pts and yds.
QB Davis (MAC Off POY) holds most of BSU’s ssn/career pass records despite being just a Jr. Davis will
sit down after the ssn to decide if he should declare early for the NFL draft as he is considered a 1st day
pick by many. The big diff in the Cardinals’ off TY is a healthy RB Lewis, whose first 2 yrs were shortened
by ssn ending inj’s. TY he has remained healthy and is the MAC’s #1 rusher and gives Ball St a balanced
attack. BSU lost WR Love, who was leading the NCAA in rec, to a career ending inj in the 4th gm of the
yr. His replacement Orsbon is the tm’s top rec as a True Fr. TE Hill is the #2 receiver and is the tm’s top
redzone threat. The OL avg 6’4” 293 and has 4 players who started all 13 gms and the 3 Sr members were
all 1st Tm MAC (C Gerberry, RT Brewster and LT Ramsey). The OL has opened holes for 5.1 ypc while
allowing just 12 sacks (3.2%). The Cards’ D is another reason for their big season as they all’d 19 ppg and
348 ypg after all’g 28 ppg and 432 ypg LY. The youthful and small DL (avg 6’2” 253 with 0 Sr) allowed 4.3
ypc with just 5.5 of the tm’s 21 sks led by DE Crawford’s 7 tfl. The LB corps is led by WLB Haines, a 4 yr
starter, and SLB Meeks who leads the tm in sks. The secondary is all’g 206 ypg (57%) with a 14-16 ratio
and are led by two Sr CB’s in Hill and Buice. Ball St has our #35 ST, despite the loss of Love who set the
MAC single ssn record for all-purp and KR yds LY. The Cards had two 2nd Tm MAC players in P Miller
and PR Hill. BSU avg 23.5 ypr on KR and 12.8 on PR while all’g 19.7 on KR and 6.5 on PR.
TU has our #4 off avg 565 ypg (#2 in NCAA) and 47 ppg (#2 in NCAA), but is only avg 34 ppg the L/5.
QB Johnson was on pace to break Colt Brennan’s NCAA record for pass eff, but threw 5 int in the 27-24
title gm loss and fell to #2. Johnson has thrown 18 int in 13 gms, but 9 have come over the L/5. Johnson
was sk’d just 20x’s TY and is protected by an OL that avg 6’4” 315 while paving the way for 5.4 ypc. The
OL features 2 Sr’s and has 4 players who started all 13 gms. RB Adams became just the 2nd player in
school history to go over 3,000 career rush yds and has posted B2B 1,000 yd ssns. WR Marion is the big
play wideout as he leads the NCAA (25.9 ypc!) but inj’d his knee in the CUSA Title gm and may not be
healthy here (CS). The Hurricane has our #95 D and is all’g 29 ppg and 391 ypg. TU’s 3-3-5 scheme has
produced 36 sks (#12 in NCAA) by bringing pressure from different angles as 16 diff players have a sk.
The front 3 avg 6’3” 292 and has been solid vs the run all’g 3.9 ypc (134 ypg). The secondary plays a lot
of man-to-man coverage and is #108 in our pass eff D all’g 258 ypg (61%) with a 32-8 ratio. The ST’s are
ranked #96. K Tracy has limited range as he has not made a FG over 37 yds this season.
These are two exciting offenses with each led by a productive QB. Both dropped their conf champ
gms and both also faced bottom 5 sked’s. Tulsa has a diverse offense with many RB’s and WR’s adding
production while Ball St is reliant on RB Lewis. This gives Tulsa an edge scheming defensively and
since the Hurricane is an underdog there’s great value in this bowl.
FORECAST: TULSA BY 7
RATING: 3* TULSA
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP
First meeting between these 2 football powers. OU will be playing for its 8th National Title while UF will try
for #3. Both HC’s have a title under their belts with Meyer winning it 2Y ago (41-14, +7’ vs OSU) & Stoops (co-
B12 COY) in ‘00 (13-2, +10 vs FSU). Meyer is 4-1 SU/ATS (2-1 w/UF) in bowls and the Gators will be playing
in the postseason for an 18th consec yr (36th overall) but are 3-6 SU/ATS L9Y. Stoops is 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS
(3-1 SU/ATS as a bowl dog) guiding OU to its 10th str bowl (42nd overall) as the Sooners are just 1-4 SU/ATS
the L/5Y incl B2B bowl losses as 7+ favs in each. OU has been to this venue twice under Stoops: winning it
all in ‘00 and leaving with bad memories in the ‘04 Title gm losing 55-19 (+1) vs USC (outgained by 153 yds).
Both have dominated bowl tms TY as UF was 9-1 SU/ATS outscoring foes by 31 ppg & outgaining them by
159 ypg while OU went 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS (+24 ppg & +157 ypg). The Sooners have 8 Sr starters but just 13
upperclassman (59%). UF comes in even younger with just 4 Sr starters & 10 upperclassman (45%). Overall
there will be a combined 5 Fr starting here. Despite a strong contingent of OU fans, UF should have the crowd
edge in their home state as the 5 hr/326 mile trip is nothing compared to OU’s 23 hr/1,451 mile journey.
Way back in May we picked UF to win the Nat’l Title and while there may have been a little doubt early in the
season, HC Meyer had a plan. Instead of throwing SEC Off POY Tebow out there to get banged up, he saved
him for the crucial SEC gms and as a result, Tebow’s stats fell from 253 pass ypg, 895 rush LY to 194 ypg pass,
564 rush TY. After the Ole Miss loss, Tebow took control of the tm and promised that he would play as hard as
he could & not lose another gm and he led them to the BCS Title gm. He actually had more 1st place votes in
the Heisman balloting than Bradford despite finishing 3rd overall in his quest to become the 2nd two-time winner.
UF finished #1 in the SEC in rush off (230 ypg, 6.0) as true Fr Demps (made Olympic trials in 100M), rFr
Rainey (beat Demps in 40) and 1st Tm AA WR Harvin helped save Tebow from the pounding. Harvin missed the
SEC Champ gm (ankle) but is exp to be healthy here. The UF OL avg 6’6” 315 and only all’d 16 sks (5.4%). OC
Mullen has taken the Miss St HC job but is exp to remain with the tm for this gm. UF ranks #2 in off and #6 in D.
The D made massive strides TY especially the secondary which went from #72 with 3 Fr starters LY to #5 with
3 Soph’s & 1 Fr starting TY. The DL avg 6’3” 280 and did suffer some attrition with 3 bkups lost in the 2H of the
yr but only all’d 105 rush ypg (3.3), 4th in the SEC. MLB Spikes flies to the ball earning 1st Tm AA honors TY.
UF ranks #11 in our sp tms with AA/SEC Sp Tms POY RS James who is a threat to return anything he catches
and has a great chance to add a KR TD to his resume in this one with OU’s poor kick coverage. P Henry had
the #1 net in the SEC while K Phillips was solid despite no atts from long distance (42 yd was only miss).
OU has won 3 str B12 Titles (6 overall) & is the only IA tm with 5 wins vs ranked foes. OU has been a scoring
machine TY as they have our #1 rated off (54 ppg & 562 ypg) & have dropped an NCAA rec’d 60+ on 5 str opp’s
(35+ in every gm). Their 702 pts scored is 3rd all-time (765 by Harvard in 1886). OU has eclipsed 500+ yds in
10 gms (77%) & 600+ in 4 (31%). OU is the 1st program in IA history with two 1,000+ yd rushers & a 4,000+ yd
passer in the same ssn. Heisman Winner QB Bradford (B12 Off POY) is the leader of this offensive juggernaut
& he led the NCAA in pass eff. He has thrown for 300+ yds 11x’s (85%) & has at least 2 TD passes in every gm
(4+ in 8 gms). All-B12 RB’s Murray & Brown make up the nation’s best tandem (Murray did hurt his knee on the
opening KO in the B12 Title gm, CS). WR Iglesias & TE Gresham (Mackey Finalist) provide excellent rec options.
The OL avg 6’5” 311 (4 Sr starters) paving the way for 206 ypg (4.8). They are an NFL type unit with all 5 earning
All-B12 accolades (C Cooper was the B12 OLOY) all’g just 11 sks (2.3%). The def is ranked #13. The DL avg 6’4”
273 (no Sr) all’g 106 ypg (3.2) & accounts for 80% (33.5) of the tms sks. DL McCoy usually demands a double
tm to stop him. The LB unit was hit hard by inj as Box’s status for the bowl is ? & losing Reynolds in the RRR
was huge, but the depth is solid w/Lewis (B12 Def FrOY) & Clayton. DB Harris plays LB in some formations as
well. The pass eff def is ranked #11 as OU has all’d 253 ypg (55%) with a 20-17 ratio. OU comes in at just #105
on ST & has all’d 4 KR TD’s, but keep in mind they have kicked-off 20 more times than any other tm.
Two very deserving teams matchup and while each is known for their potent offense, Florida has the defensive
edge. The Sooners set an NCAA record finishing the season with 5 straight 60+ pt performances but since
LB Reynolds went out in the Texas gm, they’ve all’d an avg of 31 ppg. Since Florida’s loss and Tebow’s vow to
carry this team they have won 9 gms (8-0 ATS) by an avg of 49-13 and that includes not having Harvin in the
Championship gm. Florida also has one of the largest special teams edges in the postseason and it would be
no surprise if they finish with one or multiple ST TD’s. Florida wins their second National Title in three years.
FORECAST: FLORIDA BY 10
RATING: 4* FLORIDA
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